EUR: ECB seen between baseline and adverse paths – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team says ECB President Lagarde reiterated a data-dependent stance, offering no firm forward guidance. The bank argues this reduces the likelihood of an April move unless key data show clear upside price pressures. It assesses the Euro area as between baseline and adverse scenarios, with the latter implying two rate hikes.

Lagarde stresses data before next move

"In the Euro Zone, Lagarde did not give any firm forward guidance signals other than ECB is data-dependent and ready to act."

"She mentioned that the ECB needs data to act, which speaks somewhat against action already in April, unless the important data releases clearly show significant upward price pressures."

"Lagarde also said that the euro area economy is somewhere between the "baseline" and "adverse" scenario."

"In our view the baseline scenario would lead ECB to "look through" the energy shock while "adverse" should cause two hikes."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)