Polymarket Traders Assign 78% Odds to Arrest in Nancy Guthrie Case as New Clues Emerge
A Bitcoin (BTC) wallet referenced in the ransom note sent to media outlets after Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance has shown activity for the first time.
As new details continue to emerge, attention surrounding the case has expanded beyond law enforcement efforts. Traders have begun placing bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket related to the case. This prompts ethical concerns over speculation tied to an active investigation.
Nancy Guthrie Disappearance: Key Facts, Ransom Details, and FBI Developments
BeInCrypto reported that Nancy Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, was abducted from her Catalina Foothills home in Tucson, Arizona. She was last seen on January 31 and reported missing on February 1.
Authorities discovered blood spatter near the entrance of the residence. Guthrie’s phone, wallet, medication, and car were left behind. The FBI is assisting the Pima County Sheriff’s Department in the investigation.
Following the abduction, alleged ransom communications began to surface. People magazine reported that on the evening of February 2, Tucson’s CBS affiliate, KOLD, received an email containing a ransom note.
The message demanded $4 million in Bitcoin by February 5 for Nancy’s safe return and $6 million by February 9 if the initial payment was not made. According to sources, the note warned of severe consequences if the second deadline passed without payment.
Entertainment news outlet TMZ reportedly got the same email the following day. The FBI confirmed it is treating the ransom email sent to US media outlets, which referenced the Monday deadline, seriously.
On February 9, FBI Phoenix Spokesperson Connor Hagan shared that the agency was “not aware” of any continued communication between the Guthrie family and the alleged kidnappers.
FBI Director Kash Patel also released surveillance footage connected to the case, as authorities enter the second week of the search for Guthrie.
Bitcoin Wallet Linked to Nancy Guthrie Ransom Note Shows Activity
Meanwhile, TMZ reported that the Bitcoin wallet in the ransom note showed recent activity. However, it did not disclose the exact amount.
“We’ve seen activity for the first time in the Bitcoin account listed in the first ransom note, which was sent to us here at TMZ, and also to 2 TV stations in Tucson. For various reasons, we are not going to reveal the amount,” TMZ wrote.
Citing a source, People reported that a small transaction, estimated to be in the “hundreds of dollars,” was reportedly transmitted to the Bitcoin wallet referenced in the ransom note.
Although Bitcoin transactions are publicly recorded on the blockchain, tracing ransom payments is not always simple. Identifying the person behind a wallet address typically requires additional investigative tools and cooperation from exchanges.
In some cases, attackers may move funds across multiple wallets, convert across platforms, or route through cryptocurrency mixers. This is done to design to obscure transaction trails. While blockchain transparency can aid investigators, efforts to layer or disguise transactions can make tracking and recovery significantly more complex.
Nancy Guthrie Arrest Bet Highlights Ethical Dilemma of Prediction Markets
The case has also surfaced on prediction market platform Polymarket, where users are speculating on a potential arrest deadline.
The market, titled “Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28?,” was created on February 10, 2026, at 1:04 PM ET. Traders are currently assigning roughly a 78% probability of an arrest by that date, with the odds fluctuating rapidly.
The emergence of an active market tied to a real-time kidnapping investigation raises broader ethical concerns. Turning an ongoing and sensitive criminal case into a speculative financial instrument risks trivializing the severity of the situation.
Furthermore, such markets may also risk incentivizing misinformation, amplifying rumors, or distorting public perception while law enforcement efforts are still underway.
While such platforms are often described as tools for aggregating expectations, their application to active criminal investigations remains subject to debate, particularly when the outcome directly affects victims and their families.
* The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only. This article should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.
