Traders Place Record Bets Against Oil: Could Prices Fall to $70?
Traders placed record bets against oil on Tuesday. Volume in Brent put options topped 764,000 contracts, according to preliminary ICE Futures Europe data cited by Bloomberg.
A put option pays off when prices fall below a set level. Some of Tuesday’s biggest trades pay only if oil drops to about $70 by December, from roughly $96 now.
Record Bets Against Oil Target $70 by December
December $70/$69 put spreads alone topped 110,000 contracts. A spread pairs two options a dollar apart, capping both the cost and the payout. These positions profit only if Brent, the global oil benchmark, sinks below $70.
🚨 BEARISH BETS AGAINST OIL JUST HIT A RECORD HIGH.Brent crude put options just hit a record 764,000 contracts.Oil has already crashed more than 10% in just 8 days. And traders are betting the sell off isn’t over.U.S.-Iran settlement talks and the reopening of a major… pic.twitter.com/TvYBMYiJ0e
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) September 23, 2026
However, the record overstates pure bearish conviction. Narrow spreads made up more than half of Tuesday’s volume, per the same ICE data. Traders often use them to hedge existing positions rather than bet outright.
Why Oil Fell More Than 10% in Eight Days
Brent traded near $106 on September 14. By Tuesday, it briefly slipped below $98, its sixth straight daily loss and the longest run since August 2025. The slide reversed a war-driven rally as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely shut.
Two developments drove the selling. First, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the UN General Assembly. President Donald Trump praised the three-hour session.
“They had a very good meeting, a very productive meeting,” Al Jazeera reported, citing Trump.
Iran said it could reopen Hormuz within seven days if Washington eased military pressure. Its terms also include lifting the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and releasing frozen assets.
Second, Saudi Aramco restarted its East-West pipeline on Tuesday, Hydrocarbon Processing reported. The line carries crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, avoiding Hormuz. Drones knocked it offline on September 13.
What Stands Between Oil and $70
Oil steadied on Wednesday. Brent spot traded near $96.64, while U.S. crude rose 1.1% to about $94.63, TradingView data showed. Reaching $70 would require a further fall of roughly 28%.
No U.S.-Iran agreement has been announced. The Saudi pipeline also restarted at a low rate, and a security source said restoring about 4 million barrels a day could take weeks.
Earlier this month, JPMorgan dropped its forecast baseline, saying it could no longer model the war’s endgame.
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