Brent Crude Oil Erases Entire War Premium, Falls 40% to Pre-War Levels
Brent crude oil has erased its entire war premium, sliding roughly 40% from its March peak near $120 to trade around $72.25 on Wednesday. The move returns oil to its pre-war support base.
The retreat follows stalled diplomacy between Iran and the United States. Traders have shifted focus away from conflict risk and back toward supply, demand, and the broader economic outlook.
Brent Crude Oil Falls Back Into Its Multi-Year Channel
The weekly chart frames the whole story. Brent crude oil has traded inside a descending parallel channel since late 2023. That structure defined the pre-war regime for more than two years.
The channel’s upper band rejected price four separate times through 2024 and early 2026. Each test capped rallies and sent oil back toward the middle of the range.
Then the conflict changed everything. Price broke out sharply after the Iran-US escalation, with the Doha talks still unresolved. Brent surged into a distribution zone between $104 and $114, peaking near $120.
That advance has now fully unwound. The weekly chart shows a 40.02% decline from the peak. Oil has fallen back into the accumulation zone between roughly $60 and $72.
The upper band of the channel now sits directly beneath the price. Old resistance can flip into support, and that band is the first line the bulls must defend.
Daily Triangle Breakdown Pushes RSI to Oversold
The weekly structure hints at support, yet the daily chart complicates that read. Momentum has turned sharply against oil.
Brent crude oil built a symmetrical triangle after the March top. Price coiled between a lower series of highs and a rising series of lows toward an apex near $108.
The pattern resolved lower. Oil broke down from the triangle in late May and fell in a near-vertical drop as war fears faded around Hormuz shipping lanes.
Price is now back on the pre-war support zone between $68 and $73. That band held as a base during January and February before the conflict began.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30. That marks the first oversold reading since April 2025 and signals deeply negative momentum. However, such stretched readings often precede a pause or bounce.
Oil Price Prediction Hinges on the $68 to $72 Support Zone
The two timeframes converge at a single decision point. The weekly upper band, the daily support base, and a rising trendline off the early-year lows all stack up between $68 and $72.
Brent crude oil sits at the top of that confluence near $72.25. The triangle’s widest span measured about $29, and the breakdown near $100 projected toward roughly $71. That target has now been met, suggesting much of the downside has been spent.
A hold here keeps the pre-war base intact and could open a rebound toward the $80 shelf that broke in June. A daily close back above $80 would ease the bearish pressure.
A loss of $68 would invalidate that thesis. The next support sits near $60 at the accumulation floor, with the lower channel band below it.
Fundamentals could tip the balance either way. Falling US inventories and a supply warning argue for a floor, while a fresh Iranian oil license and cooling war risk keep rallies capped.
Whether oil holds this zone or slides toward $60 now depends on the next Middle East headline, weighed against the forces of supply and demand.
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