Wall Street Sees SpaceX Surpassing Nvidia in Long-Term Valuation
Key Points
Multiple Wall Street analysts have set lofty targets for SpaceX, high enough that it could surpass Nvidia.
Much of that optimism is tied to Starlink, which jumped from 9 million customers last year to 12 million earlier this month.
However, the space company isn't profitable yet, and Nvidia is a financial powerhouse.
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On June 16, just its third day of trading, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), also known as SpaceX, was briefly the fourth-largest company by market cap. Its stock has pulled back since then, but it's still in the top 10 as of June 25.
The space company's fast rise drew comparisons to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the chipmaker that's currently the world's most valuable business. Some Wall Street analysts have even predicted that SpaceX's market cap could surpass Nvidia's. Here's a look at the most bullish projections and how these two companies really compare.
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The analysts predicting a big move from SpaceX
Nvidia's market cap sits at about $4.7 trillion, and multiple analysts have set targets beyond that for SpaceX. Arete analyst Andrew Beale gave SpaceX a buy rating and a price target of $401 by the end of next year, which would translate to a market cap of about $5.3 trillion -- enough to surpass Nvidia's current market cap, although there's no telling exactly where it will be in the future.
Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan predicts that SpaceX could be worth $10 trillion within five years. CNBC's Jim Cramer said SpaceX stock could grow very quickly after its IPO due to its small float, and he has made multiple market-cap predictions for it in television appearances, including $5 trillion and $6 trillion.
Cramer's prediction is tied to the hype around SpaceX stock, but Beale and Horan based their forecasts on the strength of the business. They both cited Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, as one of the main drivers of growth. Starlink anchors SpaceX's connectivity segment, which generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, 61% of its total sales. It's also fast-growing, going from 9 million customers in 2025 to 12 million across more than 160 countries this month.
Founder and CEO Elon Musk has said that V3 Starlink satellites should launch later this year. These satellites are a significant upgrade over previous versions, with 10x the V2 version's downlink speeds and an even larger jump in uplink capacity.
SpaceX also has its launch business, which accounted for 80% of U.S. commercial launches in 2025, and its AI business. Although its AI segment lost money in 2025, the company has made some smart moves recently. It's leasing computing capacity to AI companies, including Anthropic and Alphabet, and it acquired Cursor, a popular AI coding start-up, in a $60 billion all-stock deal.
Nvidia still has a sizable lead
The SpaceX and Nvidia comparison breaks down once you get into their financial results, because that's where the chipmaker is much farther along. SpaceX's revenue grew 33% to $18.7 billion in 2025, which is fine on its own, but a red flag for a company the market is valuing at $2 trillion. Nvidia made $215.9 billion, up 65% year over year, in its fiscal 2026, which ended on Jan. 25, 2026. As for valuations, Nvidia trades at about 18 times annual sales. SpaceX trades at nearly 5 times more: 108 times annual sales.
SpaceX isn't profitable yet, either, reporting a net loss of $4.9 billion last year as it spends heavily on rockets, constellations, and AI. Even after a record-setting $75 billion IPO, SpaceX was back to raising money less than two weeks later with a $25 billion debt sale.
It's easy to take Nvidia's success for granted now that it's the market leader, but its financial results are spectacular. Revenue growth consistently tops expectations, its gross margin is above 70%, and it reported net income of $120 billion in its fiscal 2026. It's the dominant chipmaker at a time when the four biggest hyperscalers are expected to spend $600 billion to $700 billion on data centers this year.
SpaceX could theoretically be bigger than Nvidia one day, but realistically, Starlink is its only profitable business right now, and the launch business is close to breakeven. The extremely high valuation also means that anything short of perfect execution could trigger a downturn. I expect SpaceX to grow over the next five to 10 years, but not enough to surpass Nvidia.
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Lyle Daly has positions in Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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