Will Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, SpaceX, or Broadcom Be the Next $3 Trillion Company?
Key Points
SpaceX's best chance to reach $3 trillion in the short term may have passed.
Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom are highly exposed to the AI build-out.
Amazon is currently the closest to becoming a $3 trillion company.
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Currently, there are only three companies that are worth $3 trillion or more. All of those are actually above $4 trillion in market cap. While Microsoft is technically below a $3 trillion market cap right now, it's usually valued above that threshold when the market isn't in a negative mood like it is right now.
What's more intriguing is examining if Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM), Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), or Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) will be the next $3 trillion company. None of these stocks has ever crossed that threshold, and they represent the fifth through eighth-largest companies in the world.
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So, which one will get there first? Let's find out.
Image source: Getty Images.
There's a common theme around these four stocks
If you asked the average person what these four stocks have in common, you'd probably get a response along the lines of "very little." While each may have a different core business, all are united by artificial intelligence (AI).
Amazon's exposure comes through Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud computing business. AWS's growth rate is starting to ramp up thanks to its strong offering and huge demand for its custom AI chips, which can run workloads more cost-effectively than traditional GPU-based computing. Although AWS makes up a small portion of Amazon's overall revenue, it generates more than half of the profits, making it a vital part of Amazon's business.
Taiwan Semiconductor, or TSMC, has the most obvious exposure to AI, as it manufactures chips for its clients. Chip demand has gone through the roof with the AI build-out, and TSMC is seeing huge growth as a result.
SpaceX is involved in AI because it acquired xAI a few months before it hit the public markets. xAI created the Grok model and is competing for generative AI supremacy alongside countless other firms. While the AI portion of SpaceX's business isn't large right now, it would grow substantially if it could establish itself as the go-to provider for large language models.
Last is Broadcom, which has a wide product lineup. However, investors are most bullish about its custom AI chip business. Broadcom helps design and manufacture custom AI chips for several customers, and this business is set to take off as these designs reach production.
All four of these businesses are seeing major AI catalysts, but which one will reach the $3 trillion club first?
Amazon is the closest, but is it the favorite?
At a $2.5 trillion market cap, Amazon is the closest to gaining a $3 trillion valuation. TSMC isn't far behind at $2.26 trillion. SpaceX was a lot closer a few days ago, but a sell-off has caused its stock to tumble to the $2 trillion mark. Broadcom is in last place at $1.8 trillion, but with major growth in store in the second half of this year and in 2027, it's a strong pick as well.
The last company to get to $3 trillion will likely be SpaceX. Its best chance of reaching the $3 trillion mark was right after its IPO, and now that the hype has died down, it will need to deliver some incredible quarterly results to get the stock there.
To reach $3 trillion, Amazon's stock will need to rise by 20%, TSMC by 33%, and Broadcom by 67%. To make matters simpler, let's assume that all of 2026's growth is already priced into the stock price and 2027's growth will drive them to their final levels.
Wall Street analysts project Amazon to grow at a 13% clip next year, which would fall short of $3 trillion. They expect TSMC to grow its revenue at a 26% clip, which would also fall short of the necessary threshold. However, Broadcom's estimated growth rate is 62%, which is almost exactly what's required to reach the $3 trillion mark.
So, even though Broadcom is in last place, it doesn't mean you should count it out. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it beats the other three to the $3 trillion valuation point by the end of 2027.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Amazon, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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