Better Industrial Stock: USA Rare Earth vs. Archer Aviation

USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) and Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) are two of the hottest stocks in the industrial sector, and for good reasons.

In one corner is USA Rare Earth, which stands to benefit from the U.S. government's push for domestic rare-earth magnets, a crucial component in weapons and various other electronics. Meanwhile, Archer Aviation wants to dominate the skies of U.S. cities with its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.

As promising as both companies seem, neither offers much tangible revenue yet. The better industrial stock between these two is likely the one that turns more of its hype into reality. Here's why that's most likely going to be Archer Aviation.

Image source: Getty Images.

The pitch for USA Rare Earth

The United States currently imports most of its rare-earth magnets from China, arguably its biggest rival. Given that these magnets are a crucial component of weapons and other technologies, it makes sense that the government wants to establish a new source for them. The Trump administration is backing USA Rare Earth, including taking a 10% stake in the company, with additional funding and loans bringing the total capital commitment to approximately $3.5 billion.

USA Rare Earth is using that money to develop a fully integrated supply chain, from mining and development to magnet production. The business should ramp up over the next several years.

The company should complete an expansion at its magnet factory in Oklahoma next year, with a new facility coming online in South Carolina in 2028. Commercial mining production at its Texas deposit could begin in late 2028. Management believes rare-earth magnets are a $19 billion market opportunity.

The pitch for Archer Aviation

eVTOL aircraft can efficiently taxi small groups of passengers over short distances in major cities. Archer Aviation is among several eVTOL companies developing aircraft for U.S. skies, but it was the first to successfully move past Phase 3 of 4 of the FAA's regulatory approval process. Archer Aviation could provide early air taxi services across eight states as part of the White House's pilot program. It also has a contract with the U.S. Air Force for up to six aircraft.

If Archer Aviation ultimately receives final FAA approval, it could begin commercial operations and transport U.S. customers as soon as this year. Executing these pilot programs could cement Archer Aviation's position as an industry leader and unlock greater opportunities as the eVTOL industry takes off over the coming years. According to Grand View Research's estimates, eVTOLs could become a $28.6 billion industry by the end of the decade.

Why Archer Aviation wins out

USA Rare Earth has a market capitalization of $5.5 billion, while Archer Aviation's market cap is $4.2 billion. However, these companies have less than $10 million in total trailing-12-month revenue between them. It's safe to say that both stocks are very speculative; you're investing in future sales and earnings.

That future could be coming sooner rather than later. Wall Street analysts see both companies starting to post solid revenue over the next two fiscal years.

USAR Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

So, why is Archer Aviation the better stock? It comes down to simplicity. USA Rare Earth needs several things to go right over the coming years. For instance, political support must stay strong through each election cycle. The company must keep multiple key construction projects on budget and schedule. Then, it must efficiently integrate Serra Verde into its business once that $2.8 billion acquisition closes.

Meanwhile, Archer Aviation's outlook primarily hinges on FAA approval, which would give the company a clearer growth trajectory as it builds and puts more air taxis into the skies. FAA approval is a sort of all-or-nothing hurdle, but if approved, Archer Aviation would become more predictable than USA Rare Earth. With commercial operations potentially starting this year, investors shouldn't have to wait long to find out about the FAA's approval.

Investors probably shouldn't count on either stock as a core portfolio piece. That said, risk-takers who want a bit more of a sure thing might look to Archer Aviation as the better industrial stock.

Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.