Prediction: Monero (XMR) Will Overtake Cardano (ADA) by 2028

Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) and Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) have nearly reached the same market cap from opposite directions, and soon one will pull far away from the other. Monero has a market cap near $6.1 billion after rising 146% over the last three years, and Cardano is at close to $6.2 billion after losing 37% of its value in the same period.

By 2028, I predict that Monero will leave Cardano in the dust because this trend will continue. But whether it's worth buying because of that is a separate issue, so let's map out what's likely to happen with these two coins over the next couple of years.

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The fundamentals tilt one way only

Cardano has long struggled to find a product-market fit, with its smart contract capabilities and emphasis on sound governance practices largely failing to attract significant capital to its chain over time; there's only $44.5 million in stablecoin capital parked on the network.

Another problem today is that its network is showing real strain. It scrapped plans for its annual flagship summit in Singapore on June 1 after its community voted against funding the event. Days later, Charles Hoskinson, its founder, announced he was taking a break, warning of a "wave of failures" in the chain's ecosystem.

Monero's position is entirely different: it's a privacy coin intended to obscure transaction activity, with no on-chain ecosystem. Another big factor is that it appears to be in demand for its intended purpose; per TRM Labs, in 2025, 48% of newly launched darknet markets, which are traditionally hubs for illegal activity, supported using Monero exclusively.

As distasteful as that use of the coin is, it's proof that users who require untraceable transactions believe its privacy features actually work, so it has value. That puts it in sharp contrast with Cardano, which doesn't seem to have any comparable group of active users for its purposes. It's also why Monero will likely continue to outperform Cardano.

You don't need to buy either of these assets

The trouble with buying Monero based on its strong product-market fit is that it has the entire regulatory landscape against it.

The Philippines banned it on June 15 and ordered its immediate delistings from exchanges. Furthermore, the E.U.'s new Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR), which take effect on July 1, 2027, requires regulated exchanges to delist anonymity-enhancing coins like Monero.

As a result, by 2027, much of the world's regulated exchange infrastructure will refuse to offer the coin. That is a problem for any crypto portfolio that holds it. Somewhat counterintuitively, these regulations probably won't impede its illicit uses at all.

So you probably shouldn't buy either Monero or Cardano. The one that's falling seems to have no floor, and the one that's rising might essentially be made unpurchasable or illegal.

Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Monero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.