US Dollar: Supported near term, softer later – ING

ING’s Chris Turner expects the US Dollar (USD) to remain underpinned into early 2027 by strong US growth, inflation above 3% and a hawkish Federal Reserve. He notes that as headline inflation falls back towards the Fed’s 2% target, short-dated US rates should decline.

Fed stance underpins Dollar into 2027

"The dollar should stay supported by strong US growth, high inflation and a Fed threatening to tighten before weakening next spring as inflation falls."

"Our base call assumes that the Federal Reserve stays hawkish in the first quarter, as decent US growth and above-3% inflation keep money markets pricing in the threat of an extended tightening cycle."

"That turns in the second quarter, when energy-driven base effects drop out of headline inflation and a return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target sees short-dated US rates move meaningfully lower."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)