United States Dollar Index maintains position amid safe-haven demand
- US Dollar Index moves little as safe-haven demand eases amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict.
- US Dollar could receive support from robust US economic data and high Fed rate hike expectations.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are pricing in roughly a 75% chance of a December rate increase.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining steady after posting modest gains in the previous day and trading near 102.00 during Asian hours on Monday.
The Greenback moves little amid easing safe-haven demand, driven by ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict despite lingering fears of renewed US military action against Iran. Qatari and Iranian officials continued discussions for a third consecutive day, working toward an agreement to end the war ahead of the US midterm elections.
However, the US Dollar could regain ground on rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in roughly a 75% chance of a December rate increase, boosted by recent US macroeconomic data pointing to economic resilience and persistent inflation.
Traders await key upcoming events, including the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and ISM manufacturing and services data. Remarks from several Federal Reserve officials scheduled throughout the week are also expected to offer further guidance on the central bank's monetary policy path.
Dollar narrative shifts as US PCE data show inflation progress stalling
Brown Brothers Harriman highlights that the latest US September PCE report “confirms that progress on inflation has stalled.” The bank notes that, in line with consensus, “headline PCE rose 0.5% m/m vs. +0.3% in August to be up 3.6% y/y vs. 3.4% in August,” while “core PCE was up 0.3% m/m vs. 0.3% in August to be up 3.1% y/y vs. 3.0% in August.” This stickiness in both headline and core measures reinforces their view that the Dollar remains underpinned by stalled disinflation, even as market focus shifts toward wage dynamics and broader growth expectations.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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