Wall Street’s Midterm Rally Faces Its Real Test on Friday, Jim Cramer Warns

Stocks and crypto markets rallied after Democrats won control of Congress. But can the gains hold? Jim Cramer warns of a key test on Friday.

The CNBC Mad Money host warned that the October jobs report could undo much of the gains. Crypto traders face the same risk, since the data will shape Fed rate-hike expectations.

A Rally That Bet Against the AI Buildout

The Dow jumped 3.03% to 53,356.12, its best day since April 2025. The S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.44% to 25,736.51.

US stocks added about $1.2 trillion in market value, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Meanwhile, the total crypto market rose nearly 2%, with all top 10 assets trading higher.

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BREAKING: US stocks add +$1.2 trillion in market cap in their first day of trading after the Midterm Elections. pic.twitter.com/nPlyB6EOcV

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 4, 2026

Inside technology, investors bet that tougher opposition to data centers would slow the AI buildout and trim hyperscaler spending. Microsoft rose 6.70%, and  Amazon gained. 6.58%. Apple jumped 5.54% and hit an all-time high.

Companies that depend on that spending went the other way. Nvidia fell 2.76%, while AMD, CoreWeave, Nebius and Iren also came under pressure.

The Numbers the Ballot Could Not Move

Cramer, however, doubts that one election can reset the forces that move stock prices.

“I want you to understand that, as important as a midterm election can be, and this one is important, the elections did not upend the business cycle,” he said.

He sided with JPMorgan strategist Michael Cembalest on that point. Cembalest argues that rates, Fed policy, profits and AI borrowing drive markets, and midterms affect none of them.

Rate expectations reflect that view. The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, with 2 officials voting for a hike. After the election, CME FedWatch still put December hike odds at 82%, up from 77.4 % a day before.

That leaves labor data as the next big test, and Cramer says it will take over by Friday.

“The midterm results controlled today’s trading, but by Friday we will be talking the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report, and we could see a repeal of so much of this move that I hesitate to guess where we go next,” he added.

Economists polled by Reuters expect 65,000 new jobs in October, up from 29,000 in September. They see unemployment holding at 4.2%.

Early data leans toward a stronger print. ADP counted 86,000 private jobs, above the 75,000 forecast, and Vanguard expects 120,000. However, Reuters notes that ADP has been a poor guide to the official figures.

A hot report could firm hike bets and lift Treasury yields, pressuring the tech stocks and crypto that rallied. A soft report could ease hike odds and extend the gains instead.

The report lands Friday morning before the US market opens. BeInCrypto flagged it as one of 3 tests facing Bitcoin (BTC) this week.

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