Young Americans lose out in Trump’s new budget plan as it favors the elderly

US President Donald Trump’s tax-cut bill has passed through the House and is now waiting in the Senate, but young Americans are already the ones paying the price.

The legislation includes some benefits for parents, students, and workers in hourly jobs, but buried beneath all of that are deep cuts and a $3 trillion increase to the national debt that analysts say will drain future earnings, raise interest rates, and shove higher mortgage payments and taxes onto younger generations.

The plan would grow the $36.2 trillion federal debt, forcing future governments to spend more just on debt payments, not on programs that help younger people. Kent Smetters, who directs the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said, “Future generations are kind of left holding the bag.”

His model showed a 40-year-old with a typical income would lose $7,500 across their life if this plan passes, while a 70-year-old in the same income range would gain $17,500. That’s the gap, older Americans get richer, younger ones lose out.

Debt pushes housing and education out of reach

Several reasons explain how this plays out. First, younger workers usually earn less, so they benefit less from the income tax cuts. Second, the bill cuts funding for student aid and Medicaid, two programs used more by younger people. Medicaid isn’t some fringe service—it covers 4 in 10 births in US hospitals. Removing money from that hits young parents fast and hard.

Jessica Riedl from the Manhattan Institute said, “In the short term the benefits are certainly tilted towards higher earners, which is often a good proxy for age.” But the biggest problem is debt. Adding trillions more to the national tab will likely increase interest rates, making it harder for the next generation to buy homes or borrow money. John Ricco from the Yale Budget Lab found that in 2055, when today’s babies turn 30, the average mortgage could cost $4,000 more each year because of this bill.

Republicans argue that it’s all part of a long-term fix. They claim the cuts to Medicaid will make it more stable, and that new tax breaks for overtime pay and tipped income will help younger workers. They say the bill boosts business and helps people just entering the workforce. But those benefits are small and short-lived compared to what’s being lost.

Older Americans get protection, younger ones get bills

The bill adds some benefits aimed at families, like $1,000 savings accounts for newborns and an expanded child tax credit, though the final version differs in the House and Senate. Steve Scalise, the No. 2 Republican in the House, said the bill would increase the take-home pay for a median-income household with two kids by $4,000 to $5,000. But those numbers leave out rising costs in health care, groceries, and student loans caused by other cuts in the same bill.

The Congressional Budget Office and other analysts confirmed that the costs would outweigh any benefits for lower- and middle-income households. And even though the child tax credit was expanded, it still doesn’t fully apply to low-income families, so the people who need help the most don’t get the full benefit.

That same story applies to older Americans too. The bill includes a targeted tax break for people over 65, one of Trump’s campaign promises. But Brendan Duke from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said, “The tax cuts basically do nothing for the lower-income half of seniors.” Most don’t make enough to qualify. But wealthier seniors do. And those over 65 also get to keep their Medicare and Social Security untouched.

Those two programs are exploding in cost as the population ages. But while Medicaid—used more by the young and poor—gets cuts, Medicare and Social Security stay off-limits. Trump and his Democratic opponents both promised not to touch them. But both programs are projected to run short of money by 2033, and neither side has proposed a real fix. That leaves the problem, and the cost, for the next generation.

This isn’t new. Riedl called it out directly: “I think ultimately Republican and Democratic lawmakers have been engaged in intergenerational theft for a long time.” But this bill, under Trump, pushes that theft into overdrive. The richest and oldest get the breaks. The youngest get the debt.

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