US Dollar recovers, DXY rises to 105.00 amid dismal market sentiment
- A sharp recovery in US Dollar triggered by cautious market sentiment.
- Bets for interest rate cut at the September Fed meeting continue to receive pressure from Fed officials.
- US Treasury yields also fuel recovery in USD with 2-year yield rising to 5.00%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a sharp recovery, hovering around the 105.00 mark on Wednesday. Amid this climate, investors remain risk-averse. As Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ continuous asking for patience has resulted in reduced bets on a rate cut for the upcoming September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) session. As a reaction, US Treasury yields recovered.
As the US economy remains strong, the likelihood of cuts in June and July remains low, with markets keenly looking forward to data that would aid in placing bets for the September meeting. The Wednesday session should see subsequent highlights in the form of the Fed's Beige Book report.
Daily digest market movers: DXY recovers as markets await drivers
- Investor expectations see a rate cut to start in the last quarter of the year.
- As the economic calendar awaits highlights, markets will look for clues about the US economy in the Fed’s Beige book report, which will be released later in the session.
- US Treasury yields soared and the 2-year yield rose to 5%, while the 5 and 10-year rates gained to 4.63% and 4.62%, respectively.
DXY technical analysis: US Dollar makes remarkable recovery, bulls aim to consolidate above 105.00
The daily chart indicators signify a recovery in the DXY. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose above the 50 level, indicating reduced selling pressure and a potential shift in momentum. To further establish bullish momentum, the DXY managed to regain territory above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays fading red bars, suggesting a potential end of the bearish trend and an onset of bullish sentiment. For the bulls to continue gaining ground, consolidation above 105.00 would be required.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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