Australian Dollar holds steady near 0.7150 amid rising Fed hike bets, Middle East tensions
- AUD/USD flatlines around 0.7150 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Fed rate hike bets grow, which could support the US Dollar.
- Trump warned Iran to ‘get moving’ or ‘there won’t be anything left.’
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note near 0.7150 during the early Asian session on Monday. The pair steadies after retreating from multi-year highs amid shifting US interest rate expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Traders will take more cues from the Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales reports, which are due later on Monday.
Market bets for the path of monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to shift towards possible rate hikes. Several Fed officials this week stated that keeping inflation pressures in check was a top priority, while others did not rule out the possibility that rate hikes may be needed if price pressures keep rising.
Markets are now pricing in nearly a 48.4% probability the US central bank could hike rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, compared with 14.3% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The United States (US) and Iran remained far apart Sunday on a deal to end weeks of war and reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the risks of a fragile ceasefire. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran to “get moving" or seemingly face new consequences. Signs of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could lift a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair in the near term.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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