Euro slides as resilient US sales fuel Dollar rally

• US Retail Sales beat yearly forecasts, boosting Dollar momentum.
• Jobless claims rise, but Fed officials emphasize inflation risks.
• Eurozone inflation data remains secondary as DXY hits highs.

EUR/USD edges lower for the third consecutive day during the North American session, down 0.22%, as US economic data showed consumers' resilience. In contrast, jobless benefits data showed a slight increase in the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits. The pair trades at 1.1679 after reaching a high of 1.1721.

EUR/USD weakens as sticky inflation keeps Fed cut bets sidelined

US Retail Sales rose in April by 0.5% MoM, aligned with estimates, slightly below March’s print. Sales increased 4.9% YoY in the same period, exceeding estimates of 3.3% growth. Other data showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 9 rose by 211K, above forecasts of 205K.

Household spending is notable due to the jump in energy prices, with receipts at gasoline stations rising 2.8%, after surging 13.7% in March. Data from the US EIA revealed that gasoline prices rose by 12.3% last month.

On the headline, the Greenback extended its gains according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.33% at 98.77, refreshing ten-day highs. Consequently, the Euro dropped and is poised to extend its losses as Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid states that “inflation is the most pressing risk to the US economy.”

Schmid added that the economy “has shown remarkable resilience” and that the job market is “functioning effectively.”

His comments come after the latest consumer and producer price data, which reaffirmed that inflation remains sticky and stubbornly higher, clearly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

The money markets' view on interest rates suggests there is no chance of a Fed rate cut in 2026.

Across the pond, inflation in Spain came as expected at 3.2% YoY in April, down from March’s 3.4%.

Ahead of the Eurozone economic schedule, inflation in Italy will be featured.  In the US, traders would digest the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1676, holding just under the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) around 1.1647, which now sit slightly below price and suggest only a modest underlying cushion within a broader capped setup. The Relative Strength Index (14) near 46 points to waning bullish momentum, while the confluence of the prior downward resistance trend line and the broken rising support line above current levels hints that rallies remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the former rising trend-line area around 1.1759, followed by the downward resistance line region near 1.1796, where recent advances previously stalled. With no clearly defined structural floors below spot in this dataset, a sustained break under the nearby SMA cluster around 1.1647 would expose the pair to deeper losses, leaving EUR/USD reliant on fresh demand emerging at lower, as yet undefined, levels to arrest any further downside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)