Riksbank set to cut 25bp – ING

Sweden’s Riksbank is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut, likely marking the end of its easing cycle, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

But hawkish guidance may support SEK

"Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to cut rates by 25bp, in what in our view will be the last move of the cycle. While the recent oil price spike means a slightly greater chance of hold, we doubt the Riksbank will want to surprise a market that is pricing in 22bp."

"The risks are, however, skewed to the hawkish side when it comes to forward-looking language, which can offset the rate cut impact on SEK. The krona’s limited reaction to geopolitical risk reinforces its new role as a stable currency, and we still expect gradual EUR/SEK depreciation in the coming months."