China: Slowing growth with modest policy support – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas reports China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and for 2025 overall, with a moderate slowdown expected in 2026. The bank highlights a K-shaped pattern, with strong exports but weak domestic demand and a persistent property crisis. Authorities are seen maintaining supportive but modest fiscal and monetary policies as deflationary pressures ease.

K-shaped expansion and easing deflation risks

"Economic growth accelerated to +5.0% y/y in Q1 2026, vs. +4.5% in Q4 2025. It stood at 5% in 2025 as a whole and it is expected to slow moderately in 2026."

"The authorities will maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies, but their measures will continue to be modest, even in a less supportive global environment."

"Deflationary pressures are expected to decline in 2026, notably thanks to higher global energy prices and anti-involution measures implemented by the authorities."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)