US: Neomercantilist shift on trade policy reshapes global blocs – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Michael Every argues that America’s Maritime Action Plan (MAP) marks a decisive move away from rules-based free trade toward bloc-based neomercantilism. He highlights that higher US port fees and tariffs, combined with upstream alliances for critical minerals, are set to fragment global supply chains into US-centric and China-Russia-centric blocs, with inflationary and geopolitical consequences.

Port fees, tariffs and global fragmentation

"The MAP references the Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, deeming Beijing’s practices “unreasonable and burdensome.” Subsidies, state ownership, forced technology transfer, and predatory pricing have allowed China to capture over half the global market."

"If the US insists ever more of its maritime trade is carried via US-flagged and then US-built vessels, there could be major disruptions to global supply chains. As we saw in 2025, this can lead to market fears of an immediate shortage of appropriate ships being available, pushing up freight rates."

"Even if this can be ameliorated by working with allies, the MAP leads to one conclusion: ‘rules based’ free trade is over, and neomercantilism has replaced it. Port fees on top of US tariffs, on top of upstream alliances for critical minerals, will only accelerate global supply chain fragmentation towards two different economic blocs: a US-centric one with Korea/Japan (and Europe?) vs. a China-Russia-centric one."

"Another wrinkle is that US port fees on China were put on hold as part of the recent US-China trade détente. If the US is going to drop them now, it will likely see China reimpose its own counter-fees or WTO challenges, as well as potentially exerting economic --or even geopolitical--pressure in other ways."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)