China: Stimulus front-loaded but not oversized – Standard Chartered

China’s policy makers recently announced a number of stimulus programs, front-loading support. Both monetary and fiscal support remain measured and targeted, aligned with long-term policy priorities. Plans indicate boosting investment is viewed as equally important as supporting consumption in 2026, Standard Chartered's economists Carol Liao and Moriarty Lam report.

A head-start to 2026

"Policy makers have announced various supportive measures since the start of 2026. These stimulus programs are front-loaded and fiscal funding is pre-allocated, likely to counter the weakening domestic demand trend as of end-2025. Details such as key targets, budget and further policies may be announced only at the March NPC." 

"The stimulus measures appear to emphasize optimization, including enhancing their effectiveness, preventing misuse and supporting areas aligned with long-term priorities. This is consistent with our view that China’s stimulus may not expand this year as the country exits ‘tariff emergency mode.’ Rather, stimulus may continue to be targeted at supporting the desired long-term economic transition. Alongside this, the PBoC's recent relending rate cut, along with the Ministry of Finance’s (MoF’s) interest subsidy program, should help reduce borrowing costs for selected consumer, SME, innovation and decarbonization sectors, as well as for equipment upgrades. The central bank has noted that 'there is still room for a rate and RRR cut'. We see a low probability of a near-term universal policy rate cut, but still project a modest 10bps policy rate cut and a more cautious fiscal budget deficit target for 2026."

"Although supporting consumption remains the long-term priority, stabilizing investment is equally important in 2026. Recent official statements note that domestic demand needs support from both investment and consumption, and supply and demand should be mutually reinforcing. As investment fell sharply in late-2025, we expect fiscal resources to tilt more towards infrastructure and manufacturing capex this year."