When is the China CPI, and how could it impact AUD/USD?
China CPI Overview
The latest Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for August is due early on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. Headline Chinese CPI inflation is expected to contract, forecast to decline 0.2% YoY compared to the previous print of 0.0%. The monthly CPI figure is also expected to cool, with median market forecasts expecting a print of just 0.1% versus the previous 0.4%.
How could Chinese CPI inflation impact AUD/USD?
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is certainly not the Chinese currency, but China’s official currency is closely pegged to the exchange value of the US Dollar (USD). However, China’s economic well-being is tied tightly to its closest trading partners, including Australia. What impacts the Chinese economy reverberates through Australian industries.
China has been running sluggish CPI figures for some time as domestic demand growth remains sluggish. Positive impacts from steep stimulus measures from the Chinese government have proven short-lived to outright ineffective, and a continuing slump in Chinese demand could see the Australian Dollar decline as Aussie industry remains tied closely to the Chinese economy.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by residents. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Sep 10, 2025 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -0.2%
Previous: 0%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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