Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC could reach a new all-time high amid US-China trade optimism, US CPI release

출처 Fxstreet
  • Bitcoin price edges slightly down on Wednesday after rallying 4.28% over the last two days.
  • Risk-on sentiment remains strong as the US-China talks ease trade tensions ahead of the US CPI on Wednesday.
  • K33 Research report highlights that current risk aversion in BTC may set the stage for further upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) price edges slightly down on Wednesday, remaining limited below its all-time high of $111,980. The risk-on sentiment remains strong as the US-China trade agreement eases tensions and the market looks ahead to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday. 

Bitcoin moves away from its all-time high as US-China trade uncertainty eases

Bitcoin price rose sharply by 4.2% at the start of this week, on Monday, as news emerged that two major global economic powers, the US and China, had resumed trade talks in London. Following a two-day talk, both countries have agreed to ease export curbs, including those on rare earths and have established a framework to maintain the tariff truce.

In the meantime, US President Donald Trump received a favorable update late on Tuesday as a federal appeals court ruled that his “Liberation Day” tariffs can temporarily stay in effect. Last month, the US Court of International Trade blocked the implementation of Trump’s tariffs, saying that the method used to enact them was unlawful.

These ongoing developments have generated a risk-on sentiment in the market, with Bitcoin slightly correcting on Wednesday but still just 2.2% shy of its all-time high of $111,980.

Bitcoin traders await US CPI data 

Haresh Menghani, an analyst at FXStreet, reports that investors await more cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path for interest rate cuts.

Menghani continued that the focus remains glued to the release of May's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report later during the North American session on Wednesday. 

A surprise uptick in the annual headline CPI inflation print could affirm bets that the Fed will keep unchanged its monetary policy in July. In this case, the USD (US Dollar) could see another leg higher in an immediate reaction, triggering a risk-off sentiment in the market that would cause a decline in the prices of riskier assets, such as Bitcoin.

Conversely, a softer-than-expected reading could revive the USD downtrend on renewed dovish Fed expectations, often boosting investor confidence across risk markets, leading to rallies in BTC.

Bitcoin’s current situation shows a bullish bias

Tuesday's K33 Research report highlights that current risk aversion may set the stage for further upside. 

The report explains that funding rates and leverage indicators across platforms indicate sustained defensiveness, with Binance’s BTCUSDT perpetual averaging negative daily funding on Fridays and Sundays, as shown in the chart below.

BTCUSD vs Days of Negative Funding Rates Chart. Source: K33 Research

BTCUSD vs Days of Negative Funding Rates Chart. Source: K33 Research

Additionally, over the past week, average funding rates stood at 1.3% annualized, a level only seen near local bottoms over the last 2.5 years. Historically, BTC does not top in environments with negative funding; such conditions tend to precede rallies rather than mark peaks. 

“All in all, risk aversion in perps points toward a healthy rally with constructive potency to materialize higher,” says a K33 analyst.

BTCUSDT Perp: 7-Day Average Annualized Funding Rates Chart. Source: K33 Research

BTCUSDT Perpetual: 7-Day Average Annualized Funding Rates Chart. Source: K33 Research

Looking down, institutional demand has continued to strengthen so far this week. According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded an inflow of $431.12 million on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of inflow this week. If this institutional inflow continues or intensifies, the BTC price could recover and head toward its all-time high of $111,980.

Total Bitcoin spot ETFs daily chart. Source: SoSoValue

Total Bitcoin spot ETFs daily chart. Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC could rally as it closes above key resistance 

Bitcoin price retested and found support around its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $101,000 on Friday and then recovered sharply over the next three days. BTC closed above its key resistance level of $106,406 on Monday and hovered around $110,000 the next day. At the time of writing on Wednesday, it is trading slightly down at around $109,500.

If BTC continues its upward trend, it could extend the rally to retest its May 22 all-time high of $111,980.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 61, above its neutral level of 50, indicating strong bullish momentum. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bullish crossover on Tuesday, giving a buy signal and indicating an upward trend.

BTC/USDT daily chart

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, if BTC faces a correction, it could extend the decline to retest its daily support level at $106,406.

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs

Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

면책 조항: 정보 제공 목적으로만 사용됩니다. 과거 성과가 미래 결과를 보장하지 않습니다.
placeholder
암호화폐 강세주: SPX6900·월드코인 랠리 이어가고, Pump.fun은 저항에 직면이번 주 광의의 암호화폐 시장은 소폭 강세로 출발했으며, SPX6900(SPX), 월드코인(WLD), Pump.fun(PUMP) 등이 반등을 주도하고 있다. PUMP의 기술적 구도는 혼조인 반면, SPX와 WLD에는 추가 상승 기대가 살아 있다.
저자  FXStreet
21 시간 전
이번 주 광의의 암호화폐 시장은 소폭 강세로 출발했으며, SPX6900(SPX), 월드코인(WLD), Pump.fun(PUMP) 등이 반등을 주도하고 있다. PUMP의 기술적 구도는 혼조인 반면, SPX와 WLD에는 추가 상승 기대가 살아 있다.
placeholder
상위 3대 가격 전망: 비트코인·이더리움·리플 – 위험선호 개선에 힘입어 BTC·ETH·XRP 안정세이번 주 광의의 암호화폐 시장은 소폭 강세로 출발했으며, SPX6900(SPX), 월드코인(WLD), Pump.fun(PUMP) 등이 반등을 주도하고 있다. PUMP의 기술적 구도는 혼조인 반면, SPX와 WLD에는 추가 상승 기대가 있다.
저자  FXStreet
18 시간 전
이번 주 광의의 암호화폐 시장은 소폭 강세로 출발했으며, SPX6900(SPX), 월드코인(WLD), Pump.fun(PUMP) 등이 반등을 주도하고 있다. PUMP의 기술적 구도는 혼조인 반면, SPX와 WLD에는 추가 상승 기대가 있다.
placeholder
금 가격, 달러 반등·위험 선호 개선에 상단 제약… 사상 최고치 부근서 횡보금(XAU/USD)은 주초 강세적 ‘콘솔리데이션’ 국면에 진입했으며, 금요일 기록한 사상 최고치에 근접한 $3,600 직하 구간에서 등락을 보이고 있다.
저자  FXStreet
18 시간 전
금(XAU/USD)은 주초 강세적 ‘콘솔리데이션’ 국면에 진입했으며, 금요일 기록한 사상 최고치에 근접한 $3,600 직하 구간에서 등락을 보이고 있다.
placeholder
밈코인 가격 전망: 도지코인·시바이누·페페, 랠리 채비 완료월요일, 도지코인(DOGE)·시바이누(SHIB)·페페(PEPE) 등 밈코인이 상위권 성과를 기록했다. 파생상품 지표와 기술적 구도는 트레이더 관심이 늘며 신규 상승 추세 재개 가능성을 시사한다.
저자  FXStreet
18 시간 전
월요일, 도지코인(DOGE)·시바이누(SHIB)·페페(PEPE) 등 밈코인이 상위권 성과를 기록했다. 파생상품 지표와 기술적 구도는 트레이더 관심이 늘며 신규 상승 추세 재개 가능성을 시사한다.
placeholder
솔라나 가격 전망: USDG 성장·나스닥 상장 호재로 채택 강화, SOL 안정세솔라나(SOL) 가격은 월요일 작성 시점 기준 $207 상단을 유지하고 있으며, 지난주 약 3%를 회복했다. 로빈후드가 후원하는 USDG 스테이블코인의 솔라나 상 공급이 지난 한 달간 약 160% 급증해 이더리움(ETH)을 추월하며, SOL 네트워크의 채택 확대를 부각했다.
저자  FXStreet
16 시간 전
솔라나(SOL) 가격은 월요일 작성 시점 기준 $207 상단을 유지하고 있으며, 지난주 약 3%를 회복했다. 로빈후드가 후원하는 USDG 스테이블코인의 솔라나 상 공급이 지난 한 달간 약 160% 급증해 이더리움(ETH)을 추월하며, SOL 네트워크의 채택 확대를 부각했다.
goTop
quote