Bitcoin and Gold Forecast: BTC bulls hold $80K as XAU defends $4,000 ahead of Fed

• Bitcoin remains above $80,000 but struggles to gain momentum as traders await the Fed interest rate decision.
• Gold trades above $4,000 with sellers largely in control amid macro concerns.
• Market participants focus on the Fed's rate decision and Chair Warsh's press conference.

Bitcoin (BTC) ticks lower near $80,000 on Wednesday, while Gold (XAU/USD) holds above $4,000. Both assets reflect the broader risk-off sentiment as focus remains on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day.

Short-term support levels will likely determine price direction after the monetary policy verdict, with Gold advancing toward $4,100 and Bitcoin above key psychological supply at $82,000.

A daily close below $4,000 for XAU/USD might reinforce the bearish grip. On the other hand, a sustained correction in BTC below $80,000 could trigger an extended sell-off amid macro concerns and buyer exhaustion among other factors.

Fed rate decision weighs on market sentiment

Market spotlight remains on the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision. Traders are overwhelmingly pricing in a 91% chance the central bank will hold rates steady in the 3.75-4.00% range, reflecting broader consensus.

“Tomorrow’s FOMC is priced at 89% for no change, but markets expect hikes by year end and more next year. The midterms add to the noise and are likely contributing to the heavy chop in BTC lately,” K33 Research said in the weekly 'Ahead of the Curve' report.

Beyond the rate decision, participants will closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference for signals on the regulator’s policy trajectory. Notably, economists are assigning higher odds to a December rate hike, which could put downward pressure on risk assets.

“This is a nervy week for crypto,” the Co-founder and CEO of CoinRoutes, Ian Weisberger, said in an emailed commentary, adding, “Traders face a Fed rate decision, results from the biggest tech companies in the world, and around $12 billion worth of Bitcoin bets expiring on Friday. Then the US midterms land next Tuesday.”

Despite macro concerns, appetite for digital assets stands at 51 in the Neutral territory of the crypto Fear & Greed Index on Wednesday, up only marginally from 48 the previous day. However, this modest improvement pales in comparison to last week's Greed sentiment at 63 and last month’s 74.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin weighs on short-term support

Bitcoin trades at $80,812, holding just above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80,805 but remaining capped beneath the 20-day Bollinger Bands' middle layer at $81,908. This setup keeps the broader tone neutral-to-bearish, as price lacks a clear reclaim of the mid-band and is only marginally supported by the rising short-term EMA.

Momentum indicators reinforce a cautious stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 45 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remaining negative, suggesting upside attempts could still face selling pressure.

Initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger Band middle boundary near $81,907, and a daily close above this level would open the door toward the upper band around $84,072 as the next bullish objective. On the downside, the immediate shelf is provided by the 50-day EMA at $80,805, with a sustained break lower exposing the Bollinger lower band near $79,744, where buyers would be expected to regroup to prevent a deeper corrective slide.

Gold technical analysis: XAU holds key support

Gold trades at $4,050, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below a dense cap formed by the 50-day EMA at $4,201 and the Bollinger Bands middle boundary near $4,120. The Parabolic SAR at $4,108 also sits above price, reinforcing the notion of a market contained under layered resistance, while a negative MACD reading and an RSI hovering just under 40 suggest downside momentum remains in play.

Initial support lies around the lower Bollinger Band at $4,005. A clear break beneath this band would open the door to a deeper corrective phase toward lower psychological handles. On the topside, buyers would first need to reclaim the Parabolic SAR at $4,108, followed by the Bollinger mid-line at $4,120. Only a daily close above the 50-day EMA at $4,203, then the upper Bollinger Band near $4,234, would start to ease the current bearish pressure and hint at a more durable bullish reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)