Bitcoin volatility falls to 2023 lows, Glassnode says

• Bitcoin rose above $81,000 as the Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote.
• BTC realized losses fell from $630 million at the August low to $27 million during its October 24 decline, signaling less loss-driven selling.
• Traders are likely pivoting toward stocks as Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets averaged $2.6 billion in volume, surpassing its Bitcoin perpetual futures at $2.4 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $81,000 on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. The decision came as the top crypto's realized volatility fell to levels last seen in the summer of 2023.

Bitcoin volatility falls to 2023 levels, realized losses point to easing selling pressure

In a Wednesday report, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility had dropped to roughly 25%, a level below its typical range over the past year. Since 2015, Bitcoin has recorded lower volatility on only about 5% of days.

Glassnode noted that the previous two volatility lows preceded sharp price moves. Volatility fell to 18% in August 2023 before Bitcoin declined sharply, while a volatility drop to 22% in August 2026 preceded an upward move.

Before the Fed's announcement, Glassnode warned that continued low volatility could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a significant move following the policy decision.

The declining volatility coincides with lower realized losses. During recent market dips, investors have booked smaller losses, suggesting selling pressure from loss-making holders has eased considerably compared with earlier market downturns.

Glassnode reported that daily net realized losses reached roughly $630 million at the August low. During Bitcoin's October 24 decline, the largest daily net loss was $27 million.

Meanwhile, Glassnode identified 78,000-79,000 as Bitcoin’s next major support zone after bids at $80,000 on Binance’s spot order book failed to return following the October 24 sell-off.

Only $3.4 million in buy orders remained at $80,000, while bids between $78,000 and $79,000 totaled approximately $42 million, up from $24 million in mid-October.

The report also found that short-term holders (STH) have accumulated Bitcoin around $77,000, making this another potential support level if prices decline further. A separate concentration of coins acquired around $64,000 reflects purchases made near the 2026 lows.

Traders shift speculative activity toward stocks

Speculative trading activity is also moving beyond crypto, with stock and commodity perpetual futures on Hyperliquid recording higher daily volumes than Bitcoin perps on the same platform.

Glassnode reported that Hyperliquid's HIP-3 markets, which allow traders to speculate on stocks, indices and commodities through perpetual futures contracts, averaged approximately $2.6 billion in daily trading volume over the past week. That exceeded Bitcoin perpetual futures volume on the platform, which averaged about $2.4 billion daily.

The shift marks a recovery in HIP-3 activity after volumes declined following a market squeeze in August. At the start of that month, HIP-3 trading volume was more than three times Bitcoin perpetual volume before falling to roughly half that level by late August.

The most actively traded individual markets included SK Hynix, the S&P 500, a technology index and Crude Oil.

“Should this volume keep growing while Bitcoin perpetual volume stays flat, it would show speculative money still favoring stocks,” the report stated.