Ripple Price Forecast: XRP rebounds but muted ETF demand, low on-chain activity cap upside
- XRP bulls are building traction for a short-term breakout above $1.40 after defending support near $1.30.
- XRP Network Growth shows that user engagement has moderated, with newly created addresses falling to 376K.
- XRP remains contained between the 100-day EMA support and the 50-day and 200-day EMAs resistance cluster.
Ripple (XRP) gains momentum and trades above $1.35 on Tuesday, aligning with the broader cryptocurrency market recovery. Crypto majors, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), hold above Monday's weekly lows, suggesting bulls are staging a broad comeback.
Despite the short-term daily positive outlook, XRP trades within a broader bearish tone, with downtrending momentum indicators, as major moving averages weigh on upside price action.
A breach of the $1.40 supply zone would help to reassert bullish control. Conversely, given the prevailing volatility, it is too early to rule out an extended correction toward support confirmed at $1.30.
XRP recovery in jeopardy as on-chain activity fades
XRP’s recovery outlook could be at risk if the protocol continues to reduce low on-chain engagement. The number of newly created addresses has moderated to roughly 376,000 on Tuesday, down from the September peak of 1.48 million, according to Santiment. This metric reflects user interest in the token, with higher figures believed to increase demand as investors take on more risk.
However, the moderated level indicates a softening tone around the token, which has corrected from September highs of $1.67. Looking back, XRP topped out at $1.70 in August, undermining the current trend, as bulls seek support ahead of another breakout attempt.
The slowdown could also reflect the shift in market sentiment ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting later this month.
A softer-than-expected CPI would reinforce the prevailing higher odds of the central bank holding interest rates in the 3.75-4.00% range. Such a positive signal would keep bulls grounded, prompting risk-on sentiment and recovery.
Crypto Finance said in an emailed report that “CPI remains the key data release. Markets will also closely monitor comments from Kevin Warsh for further clues on the Federal Reserve's stance and the likely tone of the next two Fed meetings.”
Technical analysis: XRP holds key support
XRP shows signs of stabilizing after Monday's correction to weekly lows near $1.30. The token now trades slightly above its daily low of $1.31, with bulls aiming to breach the $1.40 supply area. Nonetheless, XRP retains a bearish near-term bias as price sits below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.38 and the 50-day EMA near $1.40.
Momentum indicators support this softer tone, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 40, suggesting lingering selling pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
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Initial resistance lies at the 200-day EMA around $1.38, followed by the denser barrier at the 50-day EMA near $1.40. A daily close above these levels would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way toward the Parabolic SAR resistance at $1.55. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at $1.34 forms immediate support.
A break below this underpinning would likely expose further weakness, leaving XRP vulnerable to an extension of the current corrective phase while the broader trend remains constrained beneath the higher moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs
The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.
Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.
Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.
Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.
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