US Dollar Index remains subdued around 98.50 due to government shutdown, Fed rate cut bets
- US Dollar Index declines as the government shutdown has stretched into its 19th day with no resolution in sight.
- CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing nearly 100% odds of an October rate cut and 96% for December.
- President Trump said that tariffs on China may be lowered, but China has to do things for the United States, too.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is retracing its recent gains registered in the previous session and trading around 98.40 during the Asian hours on Monday.
The Greenback weakens due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which has stretched into its 19th day with no resolution in sight, as senators failed for the tenth time to break the impasse during Thursday’s votes. It now stands as the third-longest funding lapse in modern US history.
The US Dollar also faces challenges amid the increased likelihood of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now pricing in nearly a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and a 96% possibility of another reduction in December.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem spoke at the Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, DC, on Friday that he could support a path with another rate cut if more risks to jobs emerge and inflation is contained. Musalem added that the Fed should not be on a preset course and follow a balanced approach.
The easing trade tensions between the United States and China may improve the market sentiment, limiting the downside of the US Dollar. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he wants China to buy soybeans at least in the amount they were buying before. Trump added that he believes China will make a deal on soybeans. “We can lower what China has to pay in tariffs, but China has to do things for us too,” he added. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to meet in the coming days to ease tensions ahead of a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this month.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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