Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls battle to restart uptrend amid ETF outflows
- Bitcoin holds near $86,000 amid capped upside after recording $90 million in ETF outflows on Monday.
- Ethereum continues to trade sideways above $2,700 despite a gradual decline in momentum indicators and persistent ETF outflows.
- XRP trades around $1.50 as recovery odds fade amid muted spot ETF activity.
Bitcoin (BTC) upholds a robust bullish outlook, trading at $85,837 on Tuesday as sellers push to regain control over the trend. Structural support levels remain intact, backed by uptrending moving averages and consolidating momentum.
Altcoins, meanwhile, reflect Bitcoin’s ranging action, with Ethereum (ETH) trading sideways above $2,700 and Ripple (XRP) hovering around the pivotal $1.50 level.
Positive market sentiment prevails amid ETF outflows
Cryptocurrency market sentiment has remained elevated in recent weeks, as shown by the Fear & Greed Index, which held at 73 in the Greed territory on Tuesday, up only slightly from 70 the previous day. This steady risk-on sentiment aligns with the broader bullish outlook, with Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recording $2.6 billion in cumulative September inflows and $3.5 billion in August.
Despite the steady risk-on sentiment, US-listed spot ETFs experienced $90 million in outflows on Monday. The outflows followed two consecutive days of inflows, totaling $190 million last Friday and $103 million on Thursday.
Ethereum spot ETFs extended their bearish streak for the fifth straight day with outflows totaling $51 million on Monday. The outflows increased from $37 million last Friday. Still, the institutional outlook remains bullish, with cumulative inflows at $13.75 billion and average net assets at $17.69 billion.
XRP spot ETFs are similarly on the back foot, after activity remained muted on Monday. Looking back, SoSoValue reported roughly $3 million in outflows last Friday, bringing cumulative inflows to $1.79 billion. Net assets under management stand at $1.69 billion.
Focus shifts to inflation data and rate hike odds
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation gauge. Market participants will watch the data closely for signals on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy trajectory ahead of October’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Notably, the probability of a rate hike in October has fallen to about 22%, as reflected in CME Group’s FedWatch tool, suggesting markets are increasingly pricing in a pause, with rates likely to remain steady in the 3.75%-4.00% band.
“Friday's payrolls report set the tone, with markets now assigning a 76% probability to a rate hold at the October meeting, while odds of a hike in December remain elevated at 67%,” Crypto Finance stated via an emailed report.
Technical analysis: Bitcoin recovery slows amid capped upside
Bitcoin trades at $85,837, extending its advance well above the main Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and sustaining a bullish near-term bias. Price holds firmly over the 50-day EMA, 100-day EMA and 200-day EMA, while the SuperTrend line at $79,558 sits comfortably below spot, reinforcing an underlying demand zone rather than immediate downside pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65 stays in bullish territory without yet registering extreme overbought conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative but shallow, hinting at waning corrective momentum rather than a decisive bearish turn.
On the downside, initial support lies around the SuperTrend level at $79,558, closely aligned with the 50-day EMA at $79,431, forming a key technical floor that would need to break to question the current uptrend. Below that cluster, the 100-day EMA at $75,565 and the 200-day EMA at $75,050 provide deeper, medium-term support, where buyers are likely to defend the broader bullish structure if a larger pullback unfolds.
Technical analysis: Ethereum and XRP struggle to regain momentum
Ethereum trades at $2,714, holding a bullish near-term bias as price extends above the key EMAs. The 50-day EMA at $2,502, the 100-day EMA at $2,330 and the 200-day EMA at $2,293 all sit comfortably beneath spot, suggesting an underpinned uptrend structure.
The SuperTrend indicator at $2,483 reinforces this constructive backdrop, while the RSI at 62 points to positive but not overbought momentum. However, the MACD remains below zero, suggesting upside momentum is moderating rather than accelerating.
Initial demand lies at the 50-day EMA near $2,502, ahead of the SuperTrend line at $2,483, which forms a key intraday cushion if a deeper pullback unfolds. Below these, the 100-day EMA at $2,330 and the 200-day EMA around $2,293 mark a broader bullish line in the sand, where buyers would be expected to defend the medium-term trend.
With no explicit overhead reference levels on the daily chart, immediate resistance should be inferred from the recent swing area around the current price zone, leaving the pair biased to consolidate gains while remaining supported above its clustered EMAs.
XRP, meanwhile, trades at $1.50, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds comfortably above the 50-day EMA at $1.40 and the longer-term 200-day EMA at $1.38. The 100-day EMA at $1.33 and the SuperTrend baseline at $1.30 sit further below, reinforcing a layered demand structure beneath spot.
Momentum remains constructive but not overstretched, with the RSI hovering near 56 and the MACD slipping slightly negative, hinting at a pause rather than a decisive reversal while the broader trend stays supported.
Immediate support is seen at the 50-day EMA around $1.40, ahead of secondary floors at the 200-day EMA near $1.38 and the 100-day EMA at $1.33, with the SuperTrend line near $1.30 marking a deeper bullish line in the sand if sellers extend a correction. With no clear technical resistance levels on the daily chart, price action could remain biased to the topside as long as XRP defends these moving-average supports, though the slightly negative MACD warns bulls may need consolidation before attempting a fresh push higher.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
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