Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC falls to two-week low as ETF outflows, tariff chaos weigh

• Bitcoin price extends losses on Tuesday, ending a two-week consolidation phase.
• US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of over $200 million, while Strategy adds 592 BTC to its reserve on Monday.
• Risk-on sentiment fades amid growing uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and rising US-Iran tensions, increasing downside risks toward $60,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price extends losses, trading below $64,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday, ending its sideways trend as selling pressure gets renewed. The institutional demand started the week on a negative note, recording withdrawals on Monday, while Strategy (MSTR) bought the recent dips. The broader sentiment remains risk-off as growing uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s new tariff announcement and rising US-Iran tensions put a lid on the Crypto King, increasing downside risks toward $60,000.

Fading institutional demand 

Bitcoin’s institutional demand failed to support the price dip, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization continuing its pullback, falling to a two-week low of $62,700 on Tuesday. SoSoValue data shows that spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded an outflow of $203.82 million on Monday, following a fifth straight week of outflows since the end of January. If this trend continues, BTC could see further correction. 

However, on the corporate front, Michael Saylor announced on X on Monday that Strategy (MSTR) purchased 592 BTC, following the purchase of 2,486 BTC in the previous week. Monday’s purchase brings the firm’s total holdings to 717,722 BTC, highlighting its continued aggressive accumulation strategy and long-term conviction in Bitcoin, despite ongoing market weakness, at an average purchase price of $76,020.

Tariff chaos weighs on risk sentiment

Risk-on sentiment continues to fade so far this week. According to a Wall Street Journal news published on Monday, the Trump administration is considering new national security tariffs on a half-dozen industries in the wake of a Supreme Court decision last week that invalidated many of the president’s second-term levies.

Trump’s announcement of raising global tariffs to 15% from 10% “effective immediately” had damped risk sentiment, with risky assets such as BTC trading below $64,000 as of Tuesday. 

In addition, concerns about potential military conflict in the Middle East further fuel the BTC correction ahead of the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday.

QCP Capital’s Monday report noted that the tariff escalation has added another layer of policy uncertainty at a time when macro risk appetite is already fading.

The report explained that with macro uncertainty intensifying and little evidence of a near-term bid returning to crypto, the pressure continues to build within the mining complex. BTC remains well below the estimated average mining cost of roughly $87,000, compressing margins and forcing operators to prioritize liquidity over accumulation.

Moreover, over the weekend, news broke that Bitdeer Technologies Group had fully liquidated its BTC treasury. 

“The move follows closely on the heels of its recently announced equity offering and convertible bond financing package, underscoring the extent to which miners are de-risking their crypto exposure to shore up cash flow as they pivot to AI,” said QCP Capital’s analyst.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Next support $60,000

The Crypto King broke and closed below its two-week consolidation phase on Monday. As of writing on Tuesday, it continues to trade down, reaching a daily low of $62,700.

If BTC continues its downward trend and the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $65,729 hold as immediate resistance, it could extend the decline toward the key support level at $60,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 29, slipping below the oversold conditions and pointing downward, indicating strong bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are converging below the zero level, indicating indecisiveness among traders. Moreover, the falling green histogram bars indicate fading bullish momentum and suggest a potential bearish crossover, further reinforcing the negative outlook.

If BTC recovers and closes above the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $65,729 on a daily basis, it could extend the advance toward the upper boundary of the mentioned consolidation range at $71,746.