Ripple Price Forecast: XRP holds amid sustained ETF inflows, but headwinds threaten recovery
- XRP holds ground, eyeing support at $2.00 as the crypto market widely recovers on Monday.
- XRP ETFs record 20 consecutive days of inflows, underscoring growing institutional appetite.
- Retail demand rises marginally, with the Open Interest averaging $3.72 billion.
Ripple (XRP) is holding ground slightly below $2.00 at the time of writing on Monday amid a generally bearish outlook across the broader cryptocurrency market. Steady institutional demand and a marginal increase in retail demand could boost momentum in the coming days, with XRP expected to edge up above the $2.00 pivotal level.
XRP ETFs extend inflows
US-listed XRP spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) extended their 20-day inflow streak on Friday, with approximately $20 million deposited. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ ETF led with $8.7 million in inflows, followed by Bitwise’s XRP with nearly $8 million and Canary Capital’s XRPC with $3.6 million.
The cumulative inflow volume stands at $991 million, while net assets average $1.18 billion. A break above the $1 billion milestone in total inflows could boost interest in XRP-related investment products.
Despite XRP futures Open Interest (OI) rising marginally to $3.71 billion on Monday, from $3.57 billion the previous day, retail demand has not recovered to levels seen before the October 10 deleveraging event. The widespread crash liquidated over $19 billion in crypto assets, wiping out $610 million in XRP long positions and approximately $91 million in shorts.
Retail interest in XRP remains significantly low despite the futures OI, compared to the $10.94 billion peak on July 22, after XRP hit a new record high of $3.66 on July 18. A sustained recovery in OI is required to support price advance beyond the $2.00 key level.
Technical outlook: Can XRP extend short-term recovery?
XRP is hovering at $1.98 and below the down-trending 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the 100-day EMA and 200-day EMA, keeping the bias generally bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line (blue) on the daily chart sits below the signal line (red), backing the bearish thesis. Moreover, histogram bars have turned marginally negative under the mean line, which suggests fading upside momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the same chart holds at 40 in the bearish region, indicating rebounds may fail to gain momentum in the short-term.
A descending trendline from the record high of $3.66 limits XRP's upside, with resistance seen near $2.54. An accelerated descending trendline from $3.09 restricts gains below $2.12. Meanwhile, the rising trendline from $1.45 underpins a developing bullish bias, offering support near $1.96.
A close above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.21 could ease bearish pressure and pave the way for an upswing toward the next trendline cap at $2.54. Still, a close below $2.00 would reassert sellers and increase the chances of the decline extending to November's low of $1.82.
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
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