Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eases below $5,300 with the bullish trend intact
- Gold eases to the $5,250 area from fresh record highs at $5,311.
- Precious metals tick down from highs with investors positioning for the Fed's decision
- XAU/USD looks overstretched after rallying for eight consecutive days.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading higher for the eighth consecutive day on Wednesday. The precious metal, however, has pulled back from all-time highs at $5,311 in the European session, returning to the mid-$5,200s as investors take positions ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates at the current 3.50%-3.75% range and hint at a steady monetary policy in the coming months. This event takes place amid unprecedented pressure from the Administration to lower interest rates and speculation that US President Trump might steal the show by disclosing the name of the next Fed Chair.
Technical analysis: Next upside targets are $5,310 and $5,455
XAU/USD keeps marching higher despite the recent pullback, with all signs pointing to an overstretched rally but no hints of a trend shift in sight. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory but has cooled from recent peaks, hinting at moderating upside momentum. The RSI (14) is at levels that normally anticipate a corrective reaction.
Immediate resistance aligns at the $5,311 all time high. Further up the 261.8% Fiboonacci extension of the January 16-21 rally, near $5,455 emerges as the next target. On the downside, the pair might find support at the previous record high, near $5,100, ahead of the January 26 low, at the $5,000 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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