Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD faces pressure above $3,350 ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium
- Gold price declines to near $3,325 as investors turn cautious ahead of Fed Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium.
- Fed members: Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller supported interest rate cuts in the July meeting.
- Investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates in the September meeting.
Gold price trades 0.6% lower to near $3,325.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The yellow metal faces selling pressure above $3,350.00 as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting has signaled that a majority of officials were reluctant to support monetary policy adjustments until they get clarity on the “magnitude and persistence of higher tariffs’ effects on inflation”.
However, two officials Governor Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller argues in favor of reducing interest rates as they prioritized cooling labor conditions over risks of de-anchoring consumer inflation expectations. In July, the Fed held interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, as expected.
The maintenance of a restrictive monetary policy stance by the Fed bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
For fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook, investors await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium on Friday.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an almost 81.6% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%-4.25% in the September meeting.
On the global front, investors seek fresh development on discussions about ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. A report from Politico has signaled that the White House is considering Budapest as a potential location for a trilateral summit between United States (US) President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for Moscow-Kyiv truce.
Earlier this week, US President Trump met with NATO members, and Ukrainian President Zelenskky to discuss concessions offered by Russia for peace in Ukraine.
Gold technical analysis
Gold price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle, which indicates a sharp volatility contraction. The upper border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the April 22 high around $3,500, while the downward border is placed from the May 15 low near $3,180.86.
The yellow metal wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3,351.00, indicating a sideways trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.
Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245.
Alternatively, the Gold price will enter an uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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