USD/INR edges higher as Rupee weakens on month-end Dollar demand, RBI rate cut bets
- The Indian Rupee slips on importer-led Dollar demand and steady US Dollar.
- RBI rate cut speculation puts pressure on short-term Rupee outlook.
- USD/INR holds above 85.35, with the next resistance seen near 85.50 and support at 84.80.
The Indian Rupee (INR) depreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday amid month-end Dollar demand from importers and a steady Greenback.
At the time of writing, the USD/INR pair is trading around 85.37 during the American trading hours. The pair is seen recovering from the two-week low touched on Monday, supported by a steady US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.20, recovering from a four-week low. The recovery comes on the back of renewed trade optimism led by the US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay imposing tariffs on the European Union (EU).
The decline in the Rupee is mainly attributed to the month-end demand for the US Dollar from local companies and foreign banks.
“Importers have been actively covering their Dollar liabilities in recent sessions, as there’s growing concern that even a modest reversal in the Dollar’s trajectory could push the Rupee toward the 86.00 mark,” a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said, according to Reuters.
Adding to the pressure, a rebound in oil prices is raising concerns about India’s trade balance. Weaker domestic equities are also dampening investor sentiment and adding to the INR’s downside.
However, speculation about a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is also weighing on the Rupee’s short-term outlook.
Amit Pabari, Managing Director at CR Forex Advisors, said the prospect of a dovish tilt by the RBI is dampening bullish sentiment toward the Indian currency.
“The Rupee is likely to face stiff resistance near the 85.50 level, and any upward move could attract selling interest,” Pabari noted. “Immediate support is seen in the 84.80 to 84.90 range.”
RBI FAQs
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
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