Higher inflation in Australia, everything as expected in New Zealand – Commerzbank

The Australian inflation indicator for April, published this morning, came in at 2.4%, which is slightly higher than expected, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Aussie inflation ticks higher; Kiwi holds steady after expected cut

"However, it should be noted that it remains within the Australian central bank's target range of 2–3% and only reflects part of the actual price change. Before the central bank makes its next decision in early July, we will see the growth figures for the first quarter, another labour market report, and the inflation figures for May. Accordingly, it is hardly surprising that the Australian dollar has barely reacted to today's figures."

"Meanwhile, as expected, the New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) cut interest rates by another 25 basis points this morning. The RBNZ pointed out that inflation is within the target range and that the real economy is slowly recovering, despite global uncertainties weighing on it. The key interest rate forecast was lowered slightly, suggesting that another rate cut is likely in the coming months."

"However, the RBNZ is now close to its terminal rate. Today, one of the decision-makers voted in favour of keeping interest rates unchanged, which is likely one of the reasons for the positive reaction of the Kiwi. Additionally, the central bank's chief economist emphasised that the key interest rate has now reached its neutral range. We therefore expect the RBNZ to end its cycle of interest rate cuts soon."