TRY: Last step before first rate cut – ING

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is expected to leave rates unchanged at 50% today. The main focus will be on the central bankers' tone and forward guidance for the first rate cut, ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes.  

USD/TRY to trade at 35.000 at year-end

“In the latest inflation assessment, while acknowledging slower-than-expected disinflation so far, the CBT pointed out a deceleration in underlying inflation last month, driven by lower core goods inflation and a more pronounced loss of momentum in services excluding rent.”

“We think that the CBT will wait to see further inflation data, however, given the dovish signals contained within the latest inflation report release. Yet chances of a December cut have increased, in our view. The lira saw a significant sell-off earlier in the week and a spike in the borrowing rate indicating some closing of carry trades and probably fears of an overly dovish CBT today.” “However, the market quickly returned to normal and after moving up to 34.600 USD/TRY the market returned to 34.455 yesterday. Even though the first rate cut is imminent, we believe the carry trade will remain a popular position here with us expecting 35.000 USD/TRY at year-end.”