NZD/USD rises as tariff confusion weighs on US Dollar
- The New Zealand Dollar is moving to reclaim 0.6000 as the Greenback weakens on post-State of the Union trade policy uncertainty.
- The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% last week, with Governor Breman pushing back on near-term tightening expectations and leaving markets pricing just 40% odds of a September hike.
- Trump's State of the Union address offered no easing of tariff rhetoric, with the administration signaling the new Section 122 global levy will be raised to 15% on certain countries.
NZD/USD rose 0.52% on Wednesday, climbing back into the 0.6000 handle after the US Dollar came under broad selling pressure. The move snapped a four-day consolidation streak and pushed the pair back into the upper half of the range it has traded since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on February 18, when the Kiwi fell sharply from the 0.6050 area.
The RBNZ's February hold at 2.25% continues to weigh on the New Zealand Dollar's upside potential. Governor Anna Breman's updated rate track pushed the first potential hike out to late 2026 at the earliest, well behind what traders had priced in, and overnight index swaps softened around eight basis points in response. The policy contrast with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised rates to 3.85% earlier in February, is growing and continues to cap the Kiwi's upside. Strong Q4 retail sales data provided some offset, showing the economy held momentum through late 2025.
Wednesday's rally was driven largely by US Dollar weakness. The dollar index slipped below 97.80 after President Trump's State of the Union address on Tuesday night offered no indication of easing tariff policies. Trump defended tariffs as a driver of economic recovery and suggested they could eventually replace income taxes, while the administration confirmed it will raise the temporary Section 122 global levy to 15%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with January minutes showing several officials discussed the possibility of rate hikes if inflation stays above target. US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva added a further layer of geopolitical caution.
Bounce from the lower end of the post-RBNZ range as Stochastic pivots
The pair continues to hold above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.5920, keeping the broader uptrend from the January lows close to 0.5750 in play. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned higher near the oversold zone after crossing bearish earlier in the month, suggesting near-term downside momentum may be fading. A push above 0.6050 would be the first sign of buyers re-engaging toward the year-to-date high near 0.6100, while a failure to hold above 0.6000 would shift focus back toward 0.5940 and the 50-day EMA.
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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