EUR/USD steadies at one-week highs ahead of key US data releases
- EUR/USD holds gains at 1.1900 after bouncing up from last week's lows at 1.1765.
- Concerns about the US labour market are weighing on the US Dollar.
- Technical indicators suggest that the pair's recent rally has lost steam.
The Euro (EUR) is practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, trading at 1.1906 at the time of writing, holding steady at one-week highs following a two-day rally. The Greenback remains on its back foot ahead of a string of key US economic data releases, while a favourable risk sentiment keeps the Euro buoyed.
With the Dollar still weighed down by the downbeat employment figures seen last week, the White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned on Monday that job growth will be lower in the coming months due to the US President Donald Trump's migration policies and higher productivity. These comments, ahead of the release of January's Nonfarm Payrolls data (NFP) on Wednesday, have failed to support the USD.
In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde remained confident that inflation in the region will stabilize at 2% in the medium term, in line with last week's monetary policy statement, which pointed to steady interest rates for the coming months.
The economic calendar is thin in Europe on Tuesday, and the main focus will be on the US Retail Sales report and the ADP 4-week average. These indicators might set the tone ahead of Wednesday's NFP release.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.16% | -0.36% | -0.01% | 0.34% | 0.29% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.07% | -0.44% | -0.10% | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | -0.07% | -0.53% | -0.17% | 0.18% | 0.13% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.36% | 0.44% | 0.53% | 0.35% | 0.70% | 0.64% | 0.49% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.17% | -0.35% | 0.35% | 0.30% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | -0.34% | -0.25% | -0.18% | -0.70% | -0.35% | -0.05% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.29% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.64% | -0.30% | 0.05% | -0.16% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.49% | -0.14% | 0.21% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest market Movers: Concerns about employment are weighing on the USD
- The US Dollar remains vulnerable, with concerns about employment creation returning to the forefront. Comments from White House adviser Kevin Hasset anticipating a weaker demand for employees in the coming months, have dampened expectations of an upbeat NFP release on Wednesday and boosted bets of Fed rate cuts in the coming months.
- Futures markets are pricing a 17% chance of a rate cut in March and 34% in April. Investors see the central bank resuming its easing cycle after Chairman Jerome Powell steps down in May. Odds for a rate cut in June are near 75%, with beyond 70% chances of at least another rate cut before the end of the year, according to data from the CME's FedWatch Tool.
- On Monday, Fed officials highlighted the divergences within the bank's committee. Governor Stephen Miran, Trump's pick to the board, downplayed the inflationary effects of tariffs and reiterated his call for more rate cuts, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that choppy jobs data is another reason for caution and warned about questions of confidence in the US Dollar.
- On Tuesday, investors' attention will be on the US Retail Sales, which are expected to have grown 0.4% in December, slowing from the 0.6% advance seen in November. Excluding automobiles, sales of all other products are also expected to slow down to 0.3% from 0.5% in the previous month.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD consolidates gains at the 1.1900 area
The Euro has completed its correction from late January highs and has resumed its broader uptrend against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair is failing to find acceptance above 1.1900, although downside attempts remain limited for now.
Technical indicators hint at a softening positive momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, but the flat MACD line around the Signal line reflects a hesitant market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 60, showing a moderate bullish bias.
The pair was capped at 1.1925 on Monday, which closes the path to the January 30 high in the 1.1970 area. To the downside, session highs near 1.1895 are holding bears for now, further down the area between the 50% Fibonacci retracement, at 1.1834, and Monday's low, near 1.1820, will come to the focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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