EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical outlook remains constructive as pair eyes breakout above 0.8830
- EUR/GBP edges higher as weak UK labor data weighs on the Pound.
- Technically, the pair remains bullish above key moving averages, with resistance at 0.8830 and support at 0.8750.
- Traders await UK Q3 GDP and Eurozone Industrial Production on Thursday, followed by Eurozone Employment and GDP data on Friday.
The Euro (EUR) trades on the front foot against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday as the Pound comes under pressure following weak UK labor market data. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8800, up nearly 0.30% on the day.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the pair remains comfortably above its key moving averages, keeping the broader outlook bullish.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies near 0.8830, the November 5 high, which also marks the year-to-date peak and the highest level since April 2023. A decisive close above this zone would open the door for further gains toward 0.8850-0.8900, before bulls potentially challenge the psychological 0.9000 handle.
On the downside, 0.8750 offers strong support as it represents the upper boundary of the previous consolidation phase, reinforced by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8747. A sustained move below this area could signal fading bullish momentum and expose the next key support near the 50-day SMA at 0.8716.
Momentum indicators support the bullish bias, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding around 63, showing steady upward momentum without overbought conditions. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 27 reflects a strengthening trend, suggesting that buyers remain in control in the near term.
Looking ahead, fresh catalysts for the EUR/GBP pair will emerge later this week from key economic releases in both the United Kingdom and the Eurozone. On Thursday, the focus will be on the UK’s preliminary third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, while the Eurozone will publish Industrial Production figures for September. On Friday, attention will turn to Eurozone labor and growth indicators, including the preliminary Employment Change and GDP readings for the third quarter.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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