Will 2026's Social Security COLA Be Larger Than 2025's? Here's What We Know So Far.

Key Points

• Seniors on Social Security are hoping for a generous cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026.

• Initial estimates are encouraging but incomplete.

• It's important not to rely too heavily on Social Security COLAs either way.

• The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook ›

When the Social Security Administration announced last October that benefits would be increasing by 2.5%, many older Americans were unhappy, and understandably so. That 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was the smallest in years. And coming off that stingy raise, many seniors are no doubt hoping for a much more generous COLA in 2026.

But will they get one? That's the big question. Here's what we know so far.

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Things look promising -- to a point

The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, makes predictions on Social Security COLAs throughout the year to try to give beneficiaries a sense of what to expect in the new year. Those projections aren't just random -- they're based on the most recent inflation data available.

In June, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.6% on an annual basis. It's the CPI-W that's used to calculate Social Security COLAs each year.

Following the release of that information, The Senior Citizens League upped its 2026 Social Security COLA projection from its previous 2.5% estimate to 2.6%. It's worth noting that the group's COLA projection for 2026 has been steadily increasing month to month in line with changes in inflation.

That said, that 2.6% COLA projection is just that -- a projection. No one can predict with certainty what next year's Social Security COLA will amount to at this stage because that number is based on third-quarter changes to the CPI-W. It's for this reason that Social Security COLAs are typically announced in October.

Don't bank on a large 2026 Social Security COLA either way

If you're someone who gets a monthly paycheck from Social Security, you may be hoping for a more robust COLA in 2026 than you got this year. You may even be in a place where a 2.6% raise versus a 2.5% raise makes a difference. But rather than hold out hope for a generous Social Security COLA in 2026, a better bet may be to reassess your financial situation and see whether there are things you can do to improve it on your own.

The reality is that while inflation has been ticking upward these past few months, we don't know whether this trend will continue. And even if next year's Social Security COLA is larger than 2025's, it doesn't guarantee that you'll end up with more buying power.

Remember, a larger Social Security COLA only means that inflation is picking up. So, what you gain in the form of a more generous COLA, you lose in the form of price increases.

In light of that, now's the time to assess your spending to determine whether there's room to cut expenses. That could mean downsizing or relocating to an area that's less expensive overall.

You may also want to consider securing some income outside of Social Security, whether by joining the gig economy or seeking out a part-time job. If you're in a place where you truly need a big boost to your monthly Social Security checks, it means you probably need more than just a COLA to see your financial situation change for the better.

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