3 Reasons to Buy Bitcoin Before March 2028

Key Points

• There is a significant opportunity arriving for Bitcoin in early 2028.

• It's the same cyclical opportunity as there was in April 2024.

• Understanding these catalysts in advance means you can prepare for them.

• 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›

When an asset has a built-in clock that cuts new supply in half every four years, ignoring that clock is like refusing to set your alarm before a predawn flight.

On that note, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will once again slash its block reward sometime in late March or early April of 2028 in a process called the halving that makes the coin much harder to produce. That range is far enough away for complacency to set in, and close enough for disciplined investors to prepare to reap the rewards of early positioning.

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Halvings have a habit of rewiring market psychology and tightening supply in ways that headlines rarely capture in real time. Let's examine three reasons why loading up on this coin well before March 2028 still looks attractive.

1. Anticipating the pattern rewards early movers

Across the last three halvings, Bitcoin rallied hard in the 12 months just before the event.

Research by Coinbase tallies an average gain of 61% during the six months ahead of the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, with most of that surge starting roughly a year out. Extrapolating that window forward lands investors in March 2027, and there's plenty of runway between now and then with which to build up a position.

Why does the market front-run the actual catalyst?

In short, because Bitcoin miners know their future revenue will halve, so they hoard their inventory or buy coins to bolster their reserves. Long-term holders refuse to part with coins when they see miners tightening supply. New buyers, noticing the pullback in exchange balances, scramble to secure positions. The feedback loop is thus self-fulfilling until something breaks or the halving passes.

Could 2028 disappoint the trend? Absolutely.

Each cycle's pre-halving pop has been a bit smaller than the last, and regulatory surprises or a liquidity crunch could blunt investor enthusiasm for buying risk assets. Still, betting that the pattern simply vanishes requires believing that human nature around scarcity has changed, which seems unlikely.

Image source: Getty Images.

2. The post-halving tailwind effect

Cutting the drip of new coins in half is one thing. The market actually feeling the drought is another.

In prior halving cycles, Bitcoin printed its largest percentage gains not before but after the halving, often starting approximately 12 months later, once the shock to daily issuance was fully absorbed. The average rally across the six months following past halvings was a staggering 348%.

Mechanically, this was caused by fewer new coins reaching exchanges each day.

Unless demand evaporates, buyers must then bid to compete to secure their portion of the dwindling float, and miners, who are now earning fewer coins, have even less inventory to dump into rallies.

The imbalance widens until the price finds a new equilibrium. If 2028 plays out even half as strongly as the post-halving periods have in history, skipping out on pre-halving accumulation could mean paying dramatically higher prices just to establish a stake later on.

3. There's ample time to build a sizable position

Knowing a catalyst like the halving is coming does not solve the oldest investing problem: letting emotions get in the way of sound strategy.

On this front, dollar-cost averaging, which is to say setting up recurring purchases of an asset regardless of its price, sidesteps the emotional quagmire of market timing. And Bitcoin, with its long time horizon for delivering returns, is an asset that is particularly well suited for dollar-cost averaging.

From now until early 2028, there are approximately 140 weekly paychecks ahead. Commit a small slice of each, and volatility in Bitcoin's price becomes your ally.

Drawdowns refill your shopping cart at a discount, while rallies lift the value of the stack you've built. The result is an average cost basis that tends to undercut lump-sum buys by smoothing out the peaks and valleys. For most investors, systematic buying is the least stressful path to ride a volatile asset into a known supply crunch.

In that vein, starting to dollar-cost average well before March 2028 is about giving yourself time to average in, time for buying unforeseen dips, and time for the halving's historic patterns to play out.

Waiting until headlines scream "halving tomorrow" leaves little room for either discipline or luck.

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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.