How to Buy Memory Stocks? Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix: Who Is the Best HBM Pick? Memory Supercycle: Where Are the Opportunities in Taiwan Stocks?

TradingKey - Since 2026, AI infrastructure spending has expanded rapidly. With new capacity constrained, the memory industry has entered a 'super cycle.' Benefiting from this, memory stocks have generally risen this year: Micron (MU) is up 54%, while Korea-listed Samsung and SK Hynix have seen gains of 57% and 49%, respectively.

Technologically, memory companies have seen varying progress. According to South Korean media reports, NVIDIA (NVDA) plans to launch its next-generation flagship AI accelerator, Vera Rubin, in the second half of this year. Its core HBM4 suppliers consist only of Samsung and SK Hynix, with Micron unfortunately missing the cut. Nevertheless, Micron's HBM capacity through the end of 2026 is already fully sold out, underscoring the red-hot demand in the memory market.

In 2026, how should investors trade memory stocks? What are the key evaluation criteria? Are there still undervalued opportunities among the HBM 'Big Three'? Which Taiwanese stocks will benefit from the memory boom?

What is memory? Where is market demand?

Based on current market demand, memory can be categorized into HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) required for AI servers, as well as traditional NAND and DRAM memory.

HBM

Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are currently the primary mass-production suppliers of HBM globally, upon which Nvidia's H100/B200 chips are highly dependent. As of now, the latest technical standard to enter mass production is HBM4, the sixth generation of high-bandwidth memory, which has become a standard feature for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform and AMD's MI450. The more advanced and efficient HBM4E has not yet entered mass production but has already appeared on the roadmaps of major manufacturers.

Currently, the HBM market is facing a severe supply-demand imbalance. The HBM production capacity of the three major leaders for 2026 is completely sold out, with orders booked through 2027 and even 2028. The industry generally believes that the extreme shortage will only ease in 2028.

DRAM

DRAM is currently the core memory component for personal computers, servers, and data centers. The primary suppliers remain Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which together control approximately 95% of the global market share. Since these companies have shifted their primary production capacity to HBM, the supply shortage of DDR5 and DDR4 has instead caused their price increases to surpass those of HBM.

Currently, the supply of DDR4 mainly comes from Taiwanese manufacturers, with Nanya Technology now being one of the few global suppliers capable of providing a stable supply of 16nm process DDR4.

NAND

NAND is the core of Solid State Drives (SSDs). The market share leaders remain Samsung and SK Hynix, while Kioxia and SanDisk (SNDK) are also significant participants. SanDisk completed its spin-off from Western Digital (WDC) in 2025, re-emerging as an independent publicly traded company focusing on products such as SSDs.

Currently, supply for all three types of memory is tight, but for different reasons. HBM demand is directly driven by AI computing power requirements; the DRAM shortage is caused by the three major manufacturers repurposing DRAM production lines for HBM; the shortage of enterprise-grade high-capacity NAND is due to mandatory production cuts by Samsung and SanDisk to compensate for heavy losses from oversupply in previous years.

SK Hynix Dominates Samsung and Micron: Why the Disparity in HBM Market Share?

Currently, the HBM market is a three-way race where SK Hynix holds a 50% market share, significantly leading the other two companies and maintaining this advantage over the long term. Samsung follows with a market share of around 30%, while Micron currently lags behind with only 20-25%. As Micron was not selected as a supplier for NVIDIA's Rubin this year, the market share gap could widen further.

SK Hynix has long maintained its leadership thanks to its first-mover advantage. The company began HBM R&D as early as 2009 and collaborated with AMD to develop the world's first HBM chip in 2013. In contrast, its competitor Samsung only began mass-producing first-generation HBM2 products in 2016 and did not treat HBM as a core business until the AI boom. Micron similarly "bet on the wrong horse," wagering on its own HMC (Hybrid Memory Cube) technology during the early stages of HBM development.

SK Hynix has the longest-standing partnership with NVIDIA, and the two are almost deeply intertwined. SK Hynix was involved in the architectural design of NVIDIA GPUs during the R&D phase and obtained next-generation HBM4 specification requirements faster, allowing it to "prepare for battle" early and lead in the validation process.

Leveraging experience accumulated through long-term cooperation, SK Hynix developed its proprietary MR-MUF packaging technology. This technology outperforms Samsung's TC-NCF process in thermal performance and offers higher stability and yield, allowing SK Hynix to establish a technological edge.

Beyond its closer ties with NVIDIA, SK Hynix's collaboration with TSMC (TSM) is also the deepest among the Big Three: it is not just a simple upstream-downstream relationship, but also involves joint technical R&D; the structure of bufferless HBM4 is a product of their collaboration.

Samsung and Micron also collaborate with TSMC, but for Samsung, TSMC is a formidable competitor to its own foundry business. Samsung’s insistence on producing its own memory and logic layers while outsourcing packaging and integration to TSMC was a move born of necessity when it could not pass NVIDIA's validation.

Given its first-mover advantage and closer collaboration with NVIDIA and TSMC, SK Hynix has secured the highest market share in the HBM market.

Samsung had significantly lagged behind its competitors over the past few years because it initially insisted on TC-NCF technology. Poor heat dissipation led to heat buildup and signal jitter, preventing it from passing NVIDIA's 12-layer HBM3E validation. However, in the second half of 2025, Samsung overcame thermal and signal jitter issues and successfully passed NVIDIA's validation. Not only is its HBM product timeline back on track, but it even demonstrated transmission speeds slightly higher than SK Hynix's in HBM4 specification tests.

Micron's market share is the lowest among the Big Three. In addition to early strategic missteps, the main reason is insufficient capacity. While Samsung and SK Hynix have massive memory production bases in South Korea, Micron's production facilities are globally dispersed, making it difficult to match the economies of scale of the Korean firms. However, this may also be related to Micron's business strategy; although Micron can produce HBM3E chips with the lowest power consumption among the three, it avoids price wars to capture the mass market, choosing instead to sell its limited supply to top-tier customers.

SK Hynix vs. Samsung vs. Micron: Which Company Has Better Prospects in the HBM Market?

Although SK Hynix currently holds the largest market share, HBM technology is still iterating and the market continues to grow. Its outlook must be examined through perspectives such as technology, order volume, production capacity, and capital efficiency.

Technological Advantage: No Absolute Leader

Currently, SK Hynix's MR-MUF packaging technology offers the best heat dissipation, while Samsung uses TC-NCF technology and Micron uses an optimized version of TC-NCF. These two technological paths each have advantages in different application scenarios: although SK Hynix's MR-MUF has excellent heat dissipation, it suffers from warping when stacking more than 16 layers; the TC-NCF technology used by Samsung provides better structural stability, ensuring chips do not deform during ultra-high layer stacking.

However, to completely resolve heat dissipation issues in ultra-high layer stacks for the launch of HBM4 products, all three companies are currently secretly developing hybrid bonding technology. This involves completely eliminating solder balls in favor of direct copper-to-copper connections, a breakthrough that would disrupt both MR-MUF and TC-NCF technologies, which both rely on solder balls to bond chips. Investors should closely monitor the progress of these three companies in this area; a breakthrough by Samsung could allow it to overtake SK Hynix, while success for SK Hynix would widen its lead.

Micron's technological advantage lies not in heat dissipation, but in power consumption control. This is primarily because Micron was the first to achieve mass production using the 1β process, which allows for smaller die sizes and finer circuitry. Consequently, at the same storage capacity, Micron's chips require lower driving voltage and are more energy-efficient. While Samsung and SK Hynix have caught up with the 1β process and are moving toward 1γ, Micron has leveraged its head start to secure a significant portion of NVIDIA's 2026 pre-orders for high-efficiency HBM3E, maintaining its lead in power-saving optimization technology.

Although there is a significant disparity in market share among these three companies, the gap in heat dissipation, stacking, and power consumption control technology will likely narrow over the long term. Therefore, while the first company to achieve a technological breakthrough may see higher stock returns in the short term, technology may not be the deciding factor in the long run. Instead, production capacity, capital efficiency, and ecosystem construction will become more critical.

Order Scale: Customized HBM to Redefine the Market Landscape

SK Hynix holds the highest market share. Benefiting from the "Iron Triangle" relationship between NVIDIA, TSMC, and SK Hynix, SK Hynix's orders have the highest priority in the HBM market (as NVIDIA is the largest customer), which constitutes its current primary advantage. Even if HBM supply falls short of demand in 2026, creating a seller's market where NVIDIA buys "whatever is available," SK Hynix's edge remains; it continues to receive priority from NVIDIA and maintains the highest supply ratio to the company.

However, the buyer side of the HBM market is quietly changing. In addition to NVIDIA, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) , AWS, and Meta (META) and other cloud service providers have joined the ranks of those pre-ordering customized HBM, which will reshape the current market landscape. There were previous rumors that Google might expand its collaboration with Samsung, potentially outsourcing TPU foundry orders to Samsung or purchasing HBM from them. Furthermore, other tech giants developing their own chips, such as AWS and Meta, also have demand for HBM.

This shift is undoubtedly a turning point for Samsung, which possesses foundry capabilities, and is also beneficial for the SK Hynix-TSMC alliance. However, Micron will need to demonstrate its flexibility in the customized market.

Micron is a pure-play memory company and lacks vertical integration capabilities; it must outsource logic base dies and packaging/testing to TSMC, resulting in higher coordination costs compared to its competitors. Additionally, Micron's production capacity is smaller. Despite ongoing expansions in regions like Taiwan and Japan, it remains difficult for Micron to catch up with rivals in the current production cycle. Lower capacity means Micron cannot handle massive orders and has a lower margin for error.

Therefore, when considering future order visibility, in addition to monitoring current market share, it is crucial to track developments among NVIDIA's HBM suppliers and the partners chosen by other cloud service providers for HBM. Based on current conditions, SK Hynix holds the most distinct advantage in terms of orders.

Production Capacity: The Variable Lies in Samsung's DRAM Production Lines

Samsung possesses the world's largest wafer manufacturing capacity, but SK Hynix has the highest HBM production capacity. Micron's HBM capacity is the smallest, at only about one-third of Samsung's. In the current memory supercycle, production capacity determines not only whether a company can create a cost advantage but also its bargaining power and risk resilience.

As the industry transitions from HBM3 to HBM4, chip manufacturing costs are rising significantly. This is primarily because the logic base dies must switch to advanced logic wafer processes, which memory manufacturers cannot produce in-house. They must outsource to TSMC or its subsidiary, Global Unichip (GUC), leading to a several-fold increase in wafer foundry costs. Additionally, because HBM4 features higher chip stacking, yield loss is also greater.

Against this backdrop, Micron, with its lower shipment volumes, may face greater yield fluctuations and shipment instability. Furthermore, Samsung and SK Hynix can amortize high fixed costs due to their larger volumes. In contrast, Micron will need to continue raising prices on its already relatively high-priced products. Moreover, since all these manufacturers must outsource orders to TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix, with their larger order scales, will gain stronger bargaining power, continuing to outperform Micron on cost.

Regarding production capacity, all major manufacturers are currently expanding. Given that SK Hynix already has a high proportion of dedicated HBM production lines and Micron's output is low, the only variable is whether Samsung will repurpose its DRAM lines for HBM production in the short term, potentially surpassing SK Hynix in capacity. If Samsung undergoes this "painful" transition, it could crush SK Hynix on cost.

Capital Efficiency: Micron's High Gross Margins Rely on Technological Superiority

However, when it comes to capital efficiency, the performance of these three companies is another matter. Capital efficiency measures the return on every dollar invested, and in this regard, Micron's performance is the most noteworthy. Although the above analysis suggests Micron has the lowest cost advantage, the company has fortunately taken the opposite approach, focusing on high-margin orders. The latest financial results released on March 16, 2026, show that in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the gross margin of Micron’s Cloud Storage Unit (CMBU), which includes HBM, reached a staggering 66%.

This is primarily because Micron's HBM3E consumes approximately 30% less power and generates less heat than its competitors. This is highly attractive to major players like NVIDIA, which urgently need to mitigate data center cooling issues and ensure stable system performance. Consequently, a market exists for Micron's products even at higher prices.

However, Micron's high premium is built on its technological lead. Given the progress of Samsung and SK Hynix in the 1γ process, HBM power consumption for these two companies is expected to decrease further. If Micron cannot maintain its advantage over competitors, its high-margin status will be unsustainable.

Where Are the Value Pockets in Memory Stocks for 2026?

Although these three giants have risen significantly since 2026, many analysts believe there is still clear room for growth. According to Yahoo Finance data, as of the Korean market close on March 17, Samsung's price-to-book (P/B) ratio was only 2.97, lower than SK Hynix's 6.73 and Micron's 8.46. This indicates that the market is only willing to pay a 2.97x premium for Samsung's assets, proving that Samsung is significantly undervalued compared to its competitors.

From a price-to-earnings (P/E) perspective, Micron's P/E (TTM) is 42, SK Hynix's is 19.28, and Samsung's is 20.68. This suggests that the market is willing to pay the highest price for Micron's future profits, while the willingness to pay for Samsung and SK Hynix is lower.

Micron's P/E is close to that of a growth stock, reflecting market optimism about its profit growth over the next few quarters. However, this also means that if Micron's performance fails to meet market expectations, it could suffer a sharp decline. SK Hynix's P/E of 19x suggests that its earnings are already relatively stable and predictable, primarily because the company has become the main HBM supplier for Nvidia, leaving less room for explosive profit growth compared to Micron.

Combining P/B and P/E ratios, Samsung appears to be the most clearly undervalued. The company owns the world's largest cluster of fabs, but the future earnings of these assets are significantly underestimated, and its stock price does not reflect market expectations for future profitability. As Samsung's massive wafer capacity is unleashed, the company is expected to see profit growth and valuation recovery; thus, the current stock price still has ample room for growth.

Within the category of memory stocks, Micron's current share price is overvalued compared to Samsung. However, if Micron is defined as an AI computing infrastructure stock, its 42x P/E would be lower than its peers. This shift in valuation logic allows Micron to command a higher premium from the AI wave compared to its competitors, mainly because its focus on HBM products is far greater than that of Samsung and SK Hynix. Furthermore, as the only domestic HBM manufacturer in the U.S., Micron also stands to benefit from the CHIPS Act, and its stock price includes a geopolitical hedging premium.

Compared to the two aforementioned companies, SK Hynix is undoubtedly a stable stock. Although it is less likely to achieve explosive growth, it can serve as a cornerstone for an investment portfolio.

Memory Super Cycle: Which Taiwan Stocks Stand to Gain?

On a global scale, no matter where the memory supercycle first gains momentum, Taiwan will undoubtedly be among the ultimate major beneficiaries. Taiwan's semiconductor industry is mature, offering everything from R&D to assembly and testing; for the purpose of supply chain synergy, many chip companies have chosen to establish operations in Taiwan. The Taiwan stock market supply chain effectively handles the entire chip production process.

The AI Chip Foundry Giant

TSMC (2330) is arguably one of the biggest winners of the memory supercycle. It not only avoids direct competition with the three major HBM giants but also benefits from the expansion of the HBM market. Whether it is SK Hynix, Samsung, or Micron, their base logic wafers for HBM4 and the final CoWoS packaging almost inevitably involve TSMC.

TSMC's subsidiary GUC (3443) is responsible for integrating HBM interface designs into TSMC's manufacturing processes, serving as another indispensable link in this supply chain.

Beneficiaries of Memory Giants Shifting Focus from Standard DRAM

As SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron shift their focus to higher-margin HBM chips, a significant supply gap has emerged for traditional DDR4/DDR5, causing price increases that have even outpaced those of HBM. Nanya Technology (2408) is Taiwan's DRAM leader, while Winbond (2344) focuses on niche DRAM; both are set to benefit substantially from this memory cycle.

In addition to DRAM manufacturers, certain module makers that stockpiled inventory before the price surge—such as ADATA (3260) with DRAM and Phison (8299) with NAND Flash—will also benefit.

The 'Pick-and-Shovel' Players of the Memory Industry

As the three HBM giants expand capacity, their demand for high-precision equipment and advanced process consumables has grown substantially. Allring Tech (6187) provides key dispensing and bonding equipment for HBM packaging; GPM (6640) and C SUN (2467) provide the necessary lamination and heat treatment equipment; and Kinik (1560) provides diamond disks essential for the advanced 1γ process—all of which are poised to benefit.