Kalshi Traders See 68% Chance Caesars Will Be Acquired This Year

The mergers-and-acquisitions rumor mill is spinning, and one name that recently came up is a familiar one: Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR). In fact, traders on prediction market Kalshi are currently pricing in a 68% chance of the casino giant being acquired this year.

Bettors know that 68% translates to odds of -210 to -215. Call it -212, meaning that if we were talking about a traditional sports wager, bettors would be required to plunk down $212 to win $100. Those odds don't imply a sure thing, but they do imply heavy favorite status.

Caesars is a rumored takeover target, and Kalshi traders believe a deal will happen. Image source: Getty Images.

For traders interested in using Kalshi to potentially profit from a Caesars buyout, here's how it works. The platform lays out the contract as "Will Caesars be acquired this year?" For those holding "yes" contracts, a deal merely needs to be announced before Jan. 1, 2027. The transaction doesn't need to close before that date.

Now, let's gauge the casino operator's viability as an acquisition target -- and also how important that is (or isn't) for a long-term investor.

History says Caesars is a valid target

History highlights why traders might be pricing in a high probability of a Caesars takeover. In less than three decades, the company has already been acquired four times, including a 2008 leveraged buyout orchestrated by private equity firms Apollo Global Management and TPG. Those firms exited the gaming company in March 2019. Sixteen months later, Eldorado Resorts wrapped up a $17.3 billion takeover of Caesars, taking the seller's name.

Fast-forward to 2026, and reports suggest multiple bidders may be interested in the casino behemoth, including management itself and Tilman Fertitta. Not only is Fertitta currently serving as U.S. ambassador to Italy and San Marino, but his company controls the Golden Nugget casinos, which compete with Caesars' venues in multiple markets.

As if those complexities weren't enough, the billionaire businessman is also the largest shareholder in Wynn Resorts and a major investor in DraftKings. It's possible regulators won't be enthusiastic about Fertitta's company owning more than 60 casinos (Golden Nugget plus Caesars) while he remains a major investor in two competing gaming entities. Or he could liquidate those stakes to partially fund an acquisition of Caesars. That's for him, his lawyers, and investment banks to hash out, and it must be noted he hasn't publicly said he's making a run at Caesars.

Takeover isn't the reason to buy Caesars

At the end of the day, buying stocks in hopes of takeovers is risky, and those risks are amplified with Caesars. Those issues also underscore why it's one of the tougher casino stocks for long-term investors to own.

Caesars won't come cheap. Its market capitalization stands at about $5.1 billion, but the company had $11.9 billion in debt at the end of last year. Even without its unrestricted cash of $887 million, the gaming company's enterprise value is north of $16 billion.

Say a takeover doesn't materialize. Investors buying the stock today are left with a debt-laden company needing to service those liabilities and allocate some capital to ailing properties. For investors that want to roll the dice here, don't buy Caesars because of M&A rumors. Buy the stock on expectations of debt reduction, individual asset sales, and improving Las Vegas trends.

Todd Shriber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Vici Properties. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.