The Metals Company (TMC) Could Set You Up for Life (Or Go to $0)

In recent years, rising geopolitical tensions have brought critical minerals and rare earth metals into the spotlight. These crucial materials power advanced technologies, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, and semiconductors, and are also essential for national defense and aerospace applications. As a result, policymakers have made securing critical mineral supply chains a top priority.

One company that looks to establish itself in the domestic critical mineral industry is The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC). The company is looking to mine the deep-sea floor, and its upside potential is massive. However, there are political and execution risks along the way that could send the stock to zero as well.

Here's what investors need to know about The Metals Company, including its upside potential and the risks.

Deep-sea mining could unlock a new frontier for critical minerals

Deep-sea mining doesn't involve digging massive holes or blasting rock, as in traditional land-based mining. Instead, it focuses on collecting mineral-rich rocks from the ocean floor. These rocks, called polymetallic nodules, sit on the ocean floor and contain high concentrations of critical minerals, including nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese.

These metals are essential to modern technology and are critical components in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, electric wiring, and high-performance steel. Right now, the United States relies almost entirely on foreign imports for manganese, cobalt, and nickel. Mining the ocean floor could provide a large domestic supply of these materials and reduce reliance on foreign providers.

Deep-sea mining could provide a lot of these critical minerals, but the industry faces regulatory uncertainty. Internationally, it is overseen by the International Seabed Authority (ISA) under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) regulates it and requires extensive environmental impact statements before issuing commercial recovery permits.

The Metals Company faces a complex regulatory path to deep-sea mining

It has been a long process for The Metals Company to get off the ground. The company has faced repeated delays from the ISA regarding exploitation regulations. Early last year, it shifted its focus to the U.S. regulatory pathway under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA). This was supported by an April 2025 executive order from the Trump administration, which aims to expedite the deep-sea permitting process.

In July 2025, NOAA introduced a consolidated application procedure that allows the company to apply for both an exploration license and a commercial recovery permit simultaneously. TMC filed the first-ever consolidated application for an exploration license in a commercial recovery permit on Jan. 22 of this year. The consolidated filing replaced its previous applications and significantly expanded its proposed commercial recovery area from 25,000 square kilometers to 65,000 square kilometers.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company is in the formal review phase. However, there is an international regulatory risk. That's because the ISA has not finalized exploitation regulations, and there is debate and concern about whether the U.S. can issue mining permits in international waters. The ISA launched an inquiry into TMC's "potential non-compliance," and the ISA council will meet this month to address this issue.

TMC also faces hurdles from environmentalists, who argue that mining the deep-sea floor could cause biodiversity loss and destroy habitat, potentially releasing toxins or stored carbon in sediment plumes.

The Metals Company is a risky stock at this stage

The Metals Company is looking to forge a path in the deep-sea mining industry and is a frontrunner in getting approved to do so. The upside could be huge, with the company estimating that these projects could generate $369 billion in revenue and over $200 billion in EBITDA over the life of the project. The company hopes for approval, with production starting in late 2027.

That said, deep-sea mining has never been done on a commercial scale, so operational costs and feasibility haven't been tested at that scale. The company could face legal hurdles from the ISA and potential lawsuits along the way.

For this reason, The Metals Company is best left to aggressive investors who can stomach this risk. Even so, investors are better off putting a small amount into the stock and dollar-cost averaging into it over time as its legal and developmental hurdles are cleared.

Courtney Carlsen has positions in TMC The Metals Company. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.