Bitcoin at $150,000 by 2026? Prediction Markets Are Skeptical -- Long-Term Investors Should Pay Attention to the Odds.

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) value has tumbled 27% since the beginning of this year, as investors have exited some tech-focused stocks and speculative investments like cryptocurrencies.

But a small percentage of bettors on Polymarket -- just 10% -- believe Bitcoin is poised for a massive rebound and will reach $150,000 before the end of this year. Here's why long-term investors are right to be skeptical about a rapid resurgence of Bitcoin's price this year.

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10% of Polymarket bettors think Bitcoin will more than 2X from this point

As of this writing, Bitcoin's price is just under $63,000, which means that bettors on Polymarket believe the cryptocurrency will more than double from its current price. That's a significant reversal from just three months ago, when a whopping 44% believed it could reach $150,000 in 2026.

They're not pulling that $150,000 goal out of nowhere, though. At least six crypto firms and finance experts have predicted a $150,000 price tag for Bitcoin this year -- at both the low and high ends of predictions -- including CoinShares, Standard Chartered, Maple Finance, and more.

Why long-term investors should be skeptical

I'm generally bullish on the long-term outlook of Bitcoin, but I think inventors are right to be skeptical that the cryptocurrency will reach $150,000 this year.

Two of the biggest catalysts for Bitcoin's recent share price declines have been a pullback on tech-related investments, including cryptocurrencies, as well as a retreat from more speculative investments.

Investors are scrutinizing some artificial intelligence spending by tech companies, especially after Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft announced up to $650 billion in collective capital expenditures in 2026 alone.

While Bitcoin doesn't really have anything to do with AI, investors have lumped Bitcoin into some of their skepticism of tech investments lately. And given that AI will continue to be disruptive across many industries and may impact software companies, further declines could occur.

What's more, investors appear to be losing some of their appetite for riskier investments. The price of many cryptocurrencies has plummeted over the past several months, along with other risky bets like quantum computing stocks.

A combination of macroeconomic factors may be at play, but the most important is probably President Trump's constant pursuit of tariffs. After the Supreme Court recently struck down Trump's past tariffs, the president said he would issue new 15% tariffs on nearly all countries under a separate law. The tariff news has concerned companies trying to make long-term business decisions and has led to a general unease among some investors about the direction of the economy.

What this means for Bitcoin investors is that, with uncertainty high across parts of the tech sector and the economy, they are happy to take some of their past Bitcoin gains and sit out the recent turbulence. All of which means that Bitcoin rebounding any time soon to its former high of over $126,000 last October -- and gaining on top of that -- seems unlikely for 2026.

Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Bitcoin, Maple Finance, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends Standard Chartered Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.