IonQ vs. D-Wave: Which Quantum Stock Has the Clearer Path to Growth in 2026?

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) are both early movers in the quantum computing market. However, both stocks have declined by more than 20% this year as investors pivoted toward more conservative investments. Which of these quantum stocks has a better shot at bouncing back in 2026 and beyond?

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The differences between IonQ and D-Wave

Quantum computers can perform specific tasks faster than classical computers, but they're larger, more expensive, consume more power, and produce a higher error rate.

IonQ wants to shrink those systems and improve their accuracy by using tiny lasers to trap ions in a quantum state. Those trapped ion systems don't need to be cryogenically refrigerated like traditional electron-based systems, which accelerate electrons through superconducting loops.

IonQ produces four systems: its older Aria system, its flagship Forte system, its data center-oriented Forte Enterprise system, and its upcoming Tempo system. It also provides its quantum computing power as a cloud-based service. IonQ's systems can be used across a wide range of industries and achieve higher accuracy (gate fidelity) than most electron systems. Much of its recent growth has been driven by large government contracts.

D-Wave's electron-driven systems, which require refrigeration, are only used for quantum annealing services, which identify processes that consume the least power. By having D-Wave analyze their workflows, supply chains, and logistics networks, large organizations can identify the processes that consume the least computing power as the most efficient ones.

D-Wave designs its own quantum processing units (QPUs) and quantum systems. It also provides remote access to those systems through its cloud-based Leap platform. Its newest Advantage 2 quantum systems can solve certain problems 25,000 times faster than its first-gen Advantage system while consuming less power. D-Wave initially attracted a lot of attention from enterprise customers, but it's also been gaining more government contracts.

Which stock looks more reasonably valued?

From 2025 to 2027, analysts expect IonQ's revenue to nearly triple from $109 million to $317 million. They expect D-Wave's revenue to more than triple from $26 million to $81 million. Neither company is expected to break even anytime soon.

With a market cap of $11.8 billion, IonQ is already valued at 37 times its 2027 sales. D-Wave, which is valued at $7.2 billion, trades at 89 times its 2027 sales.

Both of these stocks are highly speculative. But if I had to pick one over the other, I'd stick with IonQ because it serves a broader market, its trapped-ion technology is focused on miniaturization, accuracy, and lower costs; and its stock looks cheaper relative to its 2027 sales.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.