What If SpaceX Does Not IPO in 2026? 1 Surprise Trick Elon Musk Might Have Up His Sleeve

Will he or won't he (IPO SpaceX)? That's the question space investors are asking this year.

For more than a decade, investors have been clamoring for a way to invest in Elon Musk's rocket ship company, SpaceX. Ten years ago, investors in Fidelity and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (as it's now known) stumbled into a SpaceX investment when those two companies participated in a $1 billion round of fundraising that valued SpaceX at $10 billion.

The rest of us weren't so lucky -- and now we learn SpaceX may launch an IPO in 2026 that could value the space company at $1.5 trillion, or 150 times what it cost just 10 years ago.

But what if it doesn't happen? What if it's all a head fake?

Image source: SpaceX.

What Elon Musk says

Recall that, for almost as long as there has been a SpaceX, Musk has steadfastly refused to IPO it. As the CEO used to explain, SpaceX was established to make human life "interplanetary" by establishing a colony on Mars. That would be an expensive endeavor -- probably not profitable for years if not decades -- and therefore probably not a project that would enjoy widespread support from shareholders in a publicly traded SpaceX.

For this reason, in 2013, Musk preferred to keep SpaceX privately held. He told his Twitter followers a SpaceX IPO would only be possible after the Mars colony was already up and running, and "when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly." (MCT was one of the original names for the rocket ship now known as Starship.)

Has his thinking changed?

Think $800 billion is a lot? What if I told you it will go to $1.5 trillion?

I've got two theories on that score. Here's the first:

Around the time the internet was buzzing last month about a 2026 SpaceX IPO (that still may or may not happen), SpaceX also sponsored a secondary sale of stock. SpaceX wanted an $800 billion valuation -- but as The Wall Street Journal pointed out, "there [was] no guarantee SpaceX will reach the $800 billion value it is aiming for."

After all, SpaceX's most recent funding round (in July 2025) had valued the company at just $400 billion. That was up from $350 billion at the end of 2024 (a tidy 14% increase in seven months). Getting a further 100% increase to $800 billion in just five months might have seemed like a stretch. And yet if SpaceX was hinting the $800 billion would definitely turn into $1.5 trillion on IPO day, well, that would be a rocket of an entirely different color.

It might even entice investors to pay the $800 billion valuation SpaceX was seeking.

In fact, that's precisely what happened. Bloomberg confirms the secondary came off without a hitch, and at $800 billion.

Did I say SpaceX? I meant Starlink.

Did Musk give us a head fake, hinting at an IPO just to ensure his secondary offering was successful? Perhaps. Even if he did, though, that doesn't mean SpaceX won't actually IPO in 2026.

It also doesn't mean SpaceX will IPO.

Consider: Multiple times, Musk has floated the possibility of taking public not SpaceX per se, but SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet subsidiary instead. As early as 2020, SpaceX had been discussing the potential for a Starlink IPO. Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell confirmed that "Starlink is the right kind of business that we can go ahead and take public." Musk himself, in 2021, said he might IPO Starlink once its business became "reasonably predictable."

At least a few years before Starlink revenue is reasonably predictable. Going public sooner than that would be very painful. Will do my best to give long-term Tesla shareholders preference.

-- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 24, 2021

In 2022, he clarified that might happen "three or four years from now."

Would investors be disappointed if Musk IPOs Starlink instead of SpaceX? Again, maybe -- but I don't think so. Starlink produces almost all the profits that SpaceX currently enjoys, after all -- perhaps 76% of the $15.5 billion in revenue that all of SpaceX produced in 2025.

Arguably, this could make a Starlink IPO even more tempting for investors. They'd be able to own SpaceX's cash machine without getting exposed to all the expensive baggage of trying to "Occupy Mars." This might actually be the best way for SpaceX to raise cash in an IPO -- money that the parent company could then use to fund Musk's Mars colony ambitions.

SpaceX still might decide to IPO in 2026 -- but the best idea of all might be to IPO Starlink instead.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.