Certain Wall Street analysts think Alphabet and Microsoft could achieve market values of $5 trillion in 2026.
Alphabet is adapting to changes in the search advertising landscape with generative AI features, and Google Cloud is gaining market share.
Microsoft reports strong adoption of its generative AI copilots, and its cloud computing unit, Azure, plans to double its data center footprint in the next two years.
Certain Wall Street analysts expect Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to achieve market values above $5 trillion in the next year. Here are the details.
Here's what investors should know about these artificial intelligence stocks.
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Alphabet is the largest adtech company in the world due to its ability to engage internet users and source consumer data through Google Search and YouTube. Search advertising is a particularly important source of revenue, and investors have been worried that generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity may dethrone Alphabet.
However, Alphabet is successfully adapting to the changing landscape with its own generative AI features like AI Overviews and AI Mode. CEO Satya Nadella says those innovations have led to higher query volumes. Alphabet's new Gemini application recently reached 650 million monthly users. Gemini does not include ads yet, but the company has that option.
Meanwhile, Alphabet's Google Cloud is the third largest public cloud by infrastructure and platform services sales, and the company is gradually gaining market share (1 percentage point year to date) due to strength in artificial intelligence. Industry analysts have ranked Google as a leader in large language models, AI developer platforms, and conversational AI platforms.
Alphabet reported encouraging third-quarter financial results, beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 16% to $102 billion, an acceleration from 15% growth in the same period last year. Earnings according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) increased 35% to $2.87 per diluted share. CFO Anat Ashkenazi specifically mentioned strong demand for AI infrastructure, stressing adoption of custom chips and Gemini models.
Wall Street estimates Alphabet's earnings will increase at 8% annually through 2026. That makes the current valuation of 30 times earnings look expensive. But Alphabet topped the consensus estimate by an average of 14% in the last six quarters. I think the company will continue to beat expectations as it leans into AI across its adtech and cloud businesses. In that scenario, I think Alphabet can achieve a $5 trillion market cap in 2026.
Microsoft is the largest enterprise software company in the world. While best known for its office productivity suite, the company also has a strong position in other verticals, including business intelligence, cybersecurity, and enterprise resource planning. Microsoft is exploiting its dominance in software to monetize artificial intelligence.
The company has developed generative AI copilots that automate tasks within many of its software products. Microsoft 365 Copilot is the most popular, but the company has added conversational agents to other platforms. In total, its family of copilot applications had over 150 million monthly active users in the September-ended quarter, up from 100 million in the June-ended quarter, according to CEO Satya Nadella.
Meanwhile, Microsoft Azure is the second largest public cloud and it added a percentage point of market share in the past year despite being capacity constrained with respect to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Azure will "roughly double" its data center footprint in the next two years, which should lead to continued share gains and a possible acceleration in sales growth within the cloud computing unit.
Microsoft reported encouraging financial results in the September-ended quarter, exceeding Wall Street's consensus estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 18% to $78 billion due to particularly strong sales growth in the cloud segment. Meanwhile, operating margin expanded 2 percentage points, and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings increased 23% to $4.13 per diluted share.
Wall Street estimates Microsoft's adjusted earnings will increase at 16% annually through fiscal 2027 (ends in June). That makes the current valuation of 32 times earnings look tolerable, especially when the company beat the consensus estimate by an average of 6% in the last six quarters. I think Microsoft will achieve a $5 trillion market value next year if it continues to show momentum with artificial intelligence products.
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Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.