Is Joby Aviation Stock a Buy Right Now?

Most investors see flying taxis as science fiction. But while skeptics debate whether electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft will ever move beyond tech demos, Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is assembling its first certification-ready aircraft and booking passengers for 2026 flights in Dubai. The stock is up 117% year to date as of Oct. 9, yet the company remains years from profitability.

Is Joby Aviation stock a buy right now, or is the valuation flying too high? Let's take a closer look at the eVTOL pioneer's development path, balance sheet, and core value proposition to find out.

Image source: Getty Images.

The aircraft economics

Joby has spent more than a decade designing an all-electric, piloted eVTOL aircraft that can carry four passengers at speeds up to 200 mph over ranges of 100 miles per charge. The company says that more than 99% of urban routes in cities like New York and Los Angeles fall within this range, enabling high aircraft utilization. The pitch: journeys up to 10 times faster than driving, with a near-silent overhead flight and low operating costs from electric propulsion.

The addressable market depends on who you ask. Morgan Stanley projects urban air mobility reaching $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050. More conservative forecasts put the 2030s market in the tens of billions.

Aviation Week estimates that roughly 1,000 cumulative eVTOL aircraft will be delivered by 2030, 10,000 by 2040, and 30,000 by 2050. That slow early ramp reflects reality: Regulators need time to approve new aircraft categories, cities need vertiport infrastructure, and passengers need persuading.

Joby plans to manufacture, operate, and sell its aircraft through three routes: owned and operated air taxi services, direct aircraft sales, and partnered services or joint ventures. The vertically integrated model aims to capture maximum value by controlling the entire customer experience.

Certification progress and go-to-market

The FAA doesn't hand out airworthiness certificates quickly. Joby completed Stage 3 of the five-stage type certification process in 2024 and reported being about 70% through Stage 4 as of August 2025. With only Stage 5 remaining (final paperwork and issuance of the type certificate), the company is moving closer to approval.

Industry observers expect that, if progress continues at this pace, Joby could achieve full FAA type certification around 2026, aligning with its target to start initial commercial operations next year. Moreover, the recent Blade Air Mobility acquisition accelerates the company's "go-to-market" plan by bringing terminals, routes, and brand presence in key regions.

The cash burn reality

Joby has incurred net operating losses and negative cash flows every year since its inception in 2009. As of June 30, 2025, the company carried an accumulated deficit of $2.26 billion. On that date, Joby held $991 million in cash against the guided 2025 cash use of $500 million to $540 million, excluding the Blade acquisition.

On Oct. 7, Joby announced an approximately $514 million underwritten equity offering. The capital raise gives the company more time to complete certification and scale manufacturing in Ohio, but it dilutes existing shareholders -- a recurring pattern for pre-revenue aerospace programs burning hundreds of millions annually.

The stock's valuation reflects extreme optimism. It trades at roughly 520 times projected 2026 sales. Investors are paying for a future where Joby operates thousands of aircraft generating significant amounts of revenue, not the current reality of zero commercial revenue and massive operating losses.

The investment decision

For aggressive investors comfortable with pre-revenue risk and multiyear timelines, Joby represents exposure to the urban air mobility theme (eVTOLs used as air taxis), if it becomes a reality in the late 2020s. For cautious investors, the more prudent approach is waiting for certification completion and first revenue before paying a nosebleed valuation.

George Budwell has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.