Government Shutdown Delays CPI Report — Labor Bureau Recalls Staff to Rush Data Compilation

TradingKey - Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has suspended all operations, and the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, originally scheduled for October 15, will be unavoidably delayed.

Although data collection was completed by September 30, critical steps such as data analysis, weighting adjustments, and report finalization have been halted due to approximately 2,000 BLS employees being placed on furlough.

According to officials familiar with the matter, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has directed the BLS to recall staff and urgently compile the September CPI data, aiming to release it before the end of the month. This effort is crucial because the Social Security Administration (SSA) relies on the third-quarter CPI data to calculate the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026. This adjustment directly affects benefit payments for tens of millions of retirees and disabled individuals and is typically announced shortly after the CPI report is published.

The Department of Labor’s contingency plan explicitly states that during a government shutdown, all regular economic data releases — including the CPI — will be suspended, and its website will not be updated.

While data collection is complete, producing the final report typically requires 8 to 10 business days and the coordinated work of dozens of economists and IT specialists. As such, an on-time release is now nearly impossible.

This delay echoes the 2013 government shutdown, when the CPI release was postponed by two weeks. If the report is not issued promptly this time, it could disrupt the COLA determination process and potentially undermine public confidence in official economic statistics.

Notably, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on October 28–29. While investors widely expect a rate cut, markets are closely watching inflation data to assess the Fed’s policy path. Fortunately, the delayed CPI release is not expected to impact the timing of the Fed’s decision.