EUR quietly consolidating on mixed data ahead of ECB – Scotiabank

EUR is quietly consolidating in a tight range just above 1.14, entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged from Wednesday’s close, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The multi-month trend is bullish

"The release calendar has so far been limited to slightly softer euro area PPI data and unexpectedly strong Germany factory orders data. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the ECB’s policy decision and the release of the latest economic projections."

"A 25bpt cut has been widely anticipated and fully priced, but markets have been shifting their expectations for further easing as some policymakers have spoken to the possibility of today’s cut marking the end of the latest easing cycle. A repeat of Wednesday’s BoC could deliver material EUR strength."

"The multi-month trend is bullish with a clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs since early February. The RSI is bullish but only modestly so, leaving ample room for further gains. Recent support has been observed at the 50 day MA (1.1247) and the latest resistance has been observed in the mid-1.14s. A break of the local high would shift the focus to the April 21 high in the upper 1.15s."