OECD raises 2025 global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.2%, warns of protectionism risks

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned of increasing growth risks from rising trade tensions and protectionism even after raising the global growth outlook for the next year.

Key takeaways

Sees 2024 global growth at 3.2% (unchanged), sees 3.3% in 2025 and 2026 (2025 raised from 3.2% previously).

Raises 2024 US growth forecast to 2.8% (2.6% previously), raises 2025 to 2.4% (from 1.6%) sees 2026 at 2.1%.

Sees the Japanese economy contracting 0.3% in 2024 (-0.1% previously), rebounding to 1.5% in 2025 (1.4% previously), sees 2026 at 0.6%.

Sees 2024 Chinese growth at 4.9% (unchanged), 2025 at 4.7% (4.5% previously) and 2026 at 4.4%.

Sees Eurozone growth at 0.8% in 2024 (0.7% previously), 1.3% in 2025 (unchanged) and 1.5% in 2026.

Sees US Fed cutting rates to 3.25-3.50% by q1 2026, ECB seen cutting to 2.0% by end 2025, the BoJ seen raising to 1.5% by end 2026.

Trims 2024 UK growth to 0.9% (1.1% previously), raises 2025 to 1.7% (1.2% previously), sees 1.3% in 2026.