Mitrade Insights is dedicated to providing investors with rich, timely and most valuable financial information to help investors grasp the market situation and find timely trading opportunities.

2021

Best News & Analysis Provider

FxDailyInfo

2022

Best Forex Educational Resources Global

International Business Magazine

Insights

News

Economic Indicator

US: A big October NFP miss solidifies November FOMC rate cut expectations – UOB Group

Source Fxstreet

The latest US Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last Friday (1 November) turned in a much weaker jobs creation and an unchanged unemployment rate, as weather events (Hurricanes Helene and Milton) and strike activity in manufacturing peppered the US labor market outlook, UOB Group’s Senior Economist Alvin Liew notes.

FOMC rate cut expectations get solidified

“The US reported a much weaker jobs creation at just 12,000 (weakest since December 2020) amidst an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%, as weather events (Hurricanes Helene and Milton) and strike activity in manufacturing peppered the US labor market outlook. Wage growth accelerated above forecast to 0.4% m/m, 4.0% y/y in October, meaning wagepush inflation is still a concern.”

“Job creation in October was far from being broad-based compared to the previous months, as private sector hiring hit a snag in October recording a loss of -28,000, the first negative print since December 2020 (-236,000) while government hiring stayed healthy and kept the headline in the black. Job losses were recorded in manufacturing, leisure & hospitality, professional services, retail trade, warehousing & transportation, and utilities.”

“Post-October jobs report, market pricing for the Fed to cut by 25-bps in the November FOMC is close to certainty (98.9%), according to the CME FedWatch tool, and also in line with our and broad market projections.”

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recommended Articles

Dollar index tops 100 for the first time since July as the Fed's hawkish dot plot sinks in The U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.

Author Irene Q.

Sep 17, Thu

The U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.

Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollar Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.

Author Suzie

Sep 20, Sun

Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.

Dollar holds above 100 near a 3-month high — three Fed speakers and a $69 billion auction land tonight The dollar index closed at 100.43 on Monday, its highest close since late July, after a weekly gain of about 1% — the best in more than three months — and is holding above the 100.00 handle in Asia. Three Fed officials speak tonight alongside a $69 billion two-year note auction, the first leg of $183 billion of Treasury supply this week.

Author Suzie

Yesterday 06: 34

The dollar index closed at 100.43 on Monday, its highest close since late July, after a weekly gain of about 1% — the best in more than three months — and is holding above the 100.00 handle in Asia. Three Fed officials speak tonight alongside a $69 billion two-year note auction, the first leg of $183 billion of Treasury supply this week.

October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changed Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.

Author Irene Q.

6 hours ago

Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.

Memory chips surge, Nasdaq notches a second straight record close — why the Dow fell 185 points anyway Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.

Author Irene Q.

5 hours ago

Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.

Popular Symbols